Business Investment YoY

Business Investment YoY tracks the annual percent change in UK business investment, measured by the quarterly 'Business investment in the UK' bulletin. It is published by ONS, the UK national statistical institute, and covers private and public corporations back to 1965, with detailed splits from 1997. It measures net capital expenditure, acquisitions less disposals, on fixed assets used in production for more than a year.

Examples include machinery, software and research and development. It excludes dwellings, transfer costs and government projects, and forms part of GFCF, gross fixed capital formation, the whole-economy investment aggregate. The series holds accredited official statistics status.

Calendar quarters set the reference period: Q1 runs January to March, Q2 April to June, Q3 July to September and Q4 October to December. Provisional datasets appear around 5 to 6 weeks after quarter end alongside the GDP first quarterly estimate, with datasets only and no bulletin. Revised bulletins with commentary follow around 12 weeks after quarter end alongside the GDP quarterly national accounts, at 09:30 UK time.

Revised releases arrive in March, June, September and December. Late responses replace early estimates and the bias adjustment is removed as replies arrive. Seasonal factors are reviewed each year, the Blue Book round re-benchmarks to the Annual Business Survey back to 1997, and revisions triangles are published. Release dates are set 12 months ahead, with changes announced with reasons.

Five asset groups drive the headline with no fixed published weights; contributions come in percentage points.

• Transport equipment: aircraft, motor vehicles, ships and trains; high-value items make it volatile.

• ICT equipment and other machinery and equipment: information and communication technology hardware, telecoms gear and plant, often the largest growth contributor.

• Other buildings and structures: industrial, commercial, educational and health buildings, structures and major improvements, excluding dwellings.

• Intellectual property products (IPP): research and development, mineral exploration, software, databases and entertainment originals.

• New building work and other capital equipment: private-sector manufacturing only, shown in the detailed datasets.

Revised Quarter 2 2023 results, published 29 September 2023, put investment up 4.1% on the quarter from 3.4%. It grew 9.2% versus the same quarter a year earlier. Transport led the rise, mainly high-value aircraft, and April 2023 saw higher aircraft imports from the US.

Upward revisions came from transport, IPP and ICT machinery as later survey data replaced early estimates and the bias adjustment was removed. Whole-economy GFCF, total fixed investment, rose only 0.8% on the quarter and 4.6% on the year. Weak dwellings, outside the scope, dragged the total down.

1. Net expenditure: for each firm, net equals acquisitions less disposals in the quarter, summed by industry and asset with size weights. The core QCAS survey covers about 24,500 firms with 20 or more employees, plus other sources and late-reply estimates.

1. Deflate to volumes: each current-price series is divided by a matching price index, since value equals volume times price. The indices cover producer, import, services and construction prices.

1. Chain link: each series is restated in previous-year prices each year, then yearly movements are linked into one chain. Weights update yearly, the reference year moves on, and parts need not sum.

1. Seasonally adjust: the quarterly chained-volume headline is adjusted for calendar and time-of-year effects, leaving trend plus irregular moves. Both adjusted and unadjusted data appear, but comparisons use the chained-volume seasonally adjusted (CVM SA) series.

1. Balance and align: the data pass through GDP supply-use balancing of expenditure, production and income views. Small coherence fixes for uncertain data are agreed with experts and shown in GDP releases.

1. Derive growth rates: the quarterly change divides the move since the prior quarter by that quarter, times 100. The yearly change does the same against the same quarter a year earlier. For illustration, 50.0 to 54.6 gives 9.2%.