Unemployment Rate

The UK Unemployment Rate is the headline ILO unemployment measure for people aged 16 and over with no upper age limit. It is produced by the Office for National Statistics from the Labour Force Survey, the largest household study in the country. Monthly results appear in the Labour market overview bulletin as a rolling 3 month average covering private households across the country.

Employment and inactivity rates use ages 16 to 64, while the unemployment rate stays on ages 16 and over. It has no target or trigger and simply tracks the level and direction of unemployment.

Each quarter about 29000 households and 63000 people take part, drawn from about 25800 addresses. Members answer across 5 successive waves at 3 month intervals, with about 20% of the sample replaced each quarter.

Interviewing runs without pause across 13 week quarters, with each person reporting on a 7 day reference week. The bulletin appears each month around mid-month at 7am UK time, about 6 weeks after the survey period ends. Its calendar is fixed 12 months ahead, and any change to a set date is announced with reasons.

Each edition sits beside employment, earnings, payroll, regional and vacancy outputs and flags revisions from reweighting and seasonal reviews. It is the official lead measure for the central bank and government departments, so read short shifts with care beside jobs, claims and payroll data.

The rate rises when unemployment grows faster than employment and falls when hiring outpaces jobseeking.

• Unemployed: people aged 16 and over with no work who sought work within 4 weeks and can start within two weeks.
• Waiting starters: people out of work who found a job and wait to start it within two weeks.
• Employed: people aged 16 and over who did paid work of at least one hour or were briefly away from a job.
• Economically inactive: people aged 16 and over neither in work nor seeking or available, such as carers, the sick, retirees and students.

One edition put unemployment at 3.9% (1359000 people), broadly flat on the quarter yet above its year earlier estimate. Employment for ages 16 to 64 stood at 75.0%, down on the quarter and the year. Inactivity for the same ages stood at 21.8%, up on both measures.

The related claimant count stood at 1585000, up 16800 on the month and 85800 on the year, while vacancies fell 43000 on the quarter. A flat rate can thus hide falling employment as people drift into inactivity, while claims can climb even as the survey measure holds still.

1. Interview: household members aged 16 and over answer about their reference week, with another adult replying when a member is away. Missing households carry their prior answers forward for a single wave only.
2. Classify: each person aged 16 and over is classed as employed, unemployed or inactive under global standard definitions.
3. Weight: calibration weighting adjusts for design and non-response so each group, such as males aged 18, sums to its population total. Members whose status stays unknown carry no weight.
4. Add up: weighted counts give U for unemployed, E for employed and A for the active total, where A equals E plus U.
5. Divide: the rate is U divided by the active total and multiplied by 100. For illustration only, U of 1360000 and E of 33000000 give an active total of 34360000 and a rate near 3.96%, about 4.0%.
6. Seasonal adjustment: remove regular seasonal patterns, then publish the rolling 3 month average on a country-wide basis.