Retail Sales Ex Fuel MoM measures the month-over-month change in the value of retail sales, excluding the impact of fuel prices. This high-frequency data point allows analysts to track immediate shifts in consumer behavior and spending patterns. It is considered a more stable measure of core retail activity than the headline figure because it filters out the noise of fluctuating gasoline prices.
Calculated by surveying a representative sample of retailers and comparing the total sales value (excluding fuel) of the current month to the preceding month. The results are seasonally adjusted to account for variations like the number of shopping days.
| Date | Actual | Forecast | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | -0.90 | -0.50 | -0.40 |
| Jul 24, 2026 | 1.10 | -0.40 | +1.50 |
| Jun 19, 2026 | 1.20 | 0.40 | +0.80 |
| May 22, 2026 | -0.10 | -0.30 | +0.20 |
| Apr 24, 2026 | 0.10 | 0.20 | -0.10 |
| Mar 27, 2026 | -0.60 | -0.80 | +0.20 |
| Feb 20, 2026 | 2.00 | 0.20 | +1.80 |
| Jan 23, 2026 | 0.30 | -0.20 | +0.50 |
| Dec 19, 2025 | -0.20 | 0.20 | -0.40 |
| Nov 21, 2025 | -1.00 | -0.20 | -0.80 |
| Oct 24, 2025 | 0.60 | -0.20 | +0.80 |
| Sep 19, 2025 | 0.80 | 0.70 | +0.10 |
| Sep 5, 2025 | 0.50 | 0.40 | +0.10 |
| Jul 25, 2025 | 0.60 | 1.20 | -0.60 |
| Jun 20, 2025 | -2.80 | -0.50 | -2.30 |
| May 23, 2025 | 1.30 | 0.30 | +1.00 |
| Apr 25, 2025 | 0.50 | -0.40 | +0.90 |
| Mar 28, 2025 | 1.00 | -0.50 | +1.50 |
| Feb 21, 2025 | 2.10 | 0.90 | +1.20 |
| Jan 17, 2025 | -0.60 | 0.10 | -0.70 |
| Dec 20, 2024 | 0.30 | 0.10 | +0.20 |
| Nov 22, 2024 | -0.90 | -0.40 | -0.50 |
| Oct 18, 2024 | 0.30 | -0.30 | +0.60 |
| Sep 20, 2024 | 1.10 | 0.50 | +0.60 |
| Aug 16, 2024 | 0.70 | 0.80 | -0.10 |
| Jul 19, 2024 | -1.50 | -0.50 | -1.00 |
| Jun 21, 2024 | 2.90 | 1.30 | +1.60 |
| May 24, 2024 | -2.00 | -0.60 | -1.40 |
| Apr 19, 2024 | -0.30 | — | — |
| Mar 22, 2024 | 0.20 | -0.10 | +0.30 |
| Feb 16, 2024 | 3.20 | 1.70 | +1.50 |
| Jan 19, 2024 | -3.30 | -0.60 | -2.70 |
| Dec 22, 2023 | 1.30 | 0.40 | +0.90 |
| Nov 17, 2023 | -0.10 | 0.40 | -0.50 |
| Oct 20, 2023 | -1.00 | -0.40 | -0.60 |
| Sep 22, 2023 | 0.60 | 0.60 | 0.00 |
| Aug 18, 2023 | -1.40 | -0.70 | -0.70 |
| Jul 21, 2023 | 0.80 | 0.20 | +0.60 |
| Jun 23, 2023 | 0.10 | -0.30 | +0.40 |
| May 26, 2023 | 0.80 | 0.30 | +0.50 |
| Apr 21, 2023 | -1.00 | -0.70 | -0.30 |
| Mar 24, 2023 | 1.50 | 0.10 | +1.40 |
| Feb 17, 2023 | 0.40 | -0.20 | +0.60 |
| Jan 20, 2023 | -1.10 | 0.40 | -1.50 |
| Dec 16, 2022 | -0.30 | 0.30 | -0.60 |
| Nov 18, 2022 | 0.30 | 0.60 | -0.30 |
| Oct 21, 2022 | -1.50 | -0.30 | -1.20 |
| Sep 16, 2022 | -1.60 | -0.70 | -0.90 |
| Aug 19, 2022 | 0.40 | -0.20 | +0.60 |
| Jul 22, 2022 | 0.40 | -0.40 | +0.80 |
| Date | First print | Current | Revision |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 24, 2026 | 1.10 | 1.10 | 0 ↓ |
| May 22, 2026 | -0.40 | -0.10 | +0.30 ↑ |
| Apr 24, 2026 | 0.20 | 0.10 | -0.10 ↓ |
| Mar 27, 2026 | -0.40 | -0.60 | -0.20 ↓ |
