Retail Sales Ex Fuel MoM

The indicator is the Retail Sales Index, short name RSI, for all retailing excluding automotive fuel in Great Britain. Published by the Office for National Statistics, short name ONS, it measures goods sold by retailers, not services such as holidays, fares or banking. Coverage is Great Britain only, excluding Northern Ireland, the Isle of Man and the Channel Islands, plus motor trade and supermarket fuel. Value, or amount spent with Value Added Tax included, can rise while volume, or quantity after removing prices, falls. A reading above 0% means volumes expanded, while below means contraction, and the publisher sets no target level. Comparable series stretch back across decades.

Results publish about 20 days after period end at 07:00 UK time, the market sensitive slot. Responses follow 4 week, 4 week and 5 week trading periods, with calendar month reporters adjusted to match. An extra week joins the cycle every 5 to 6 years. One collection each year runs later as price inputs arrive later, and timing can shift to avoid holiday clashes. Each new reading is provisional and subject to revision as late replies arrive and seasonal factors and the business register update, plus method improvements. Each release brings headline figures with sector commentary and an online sales summary, plus time series files and revision records.

Stripping fuel isolates shop demand from fuel price swings, leaving food, non food stores and remote sellers.

• Predominantly food stores: captures grocery volumes from supermarkets plus specialist food, alcohol and tobacco sellers. It carries the largest goods weight.
• Department stores: captures volumes in non specialised stores selling varied goods.
• Textile, clothing and footwear stores: captures apparel and shoe volumes, which react to weather and seasons.
• Household goods stores: captures durables such as furniture for the home.
• Other specialised non-food stores: captures residual specialists such as jewellery and books.
• Non-store retailing: captures remote sales, mainly online plus stalls and markets without stores.

Rising prices can lift value while volume falls, so the two are read together. Coverage stays goods from shops in Great Britain only, never services or total spending.

1. Sample: ONS draws about 5000 retailers from about 200000 on the business register, always including large firms plus a stratified random sample of smaller ones. The sample covers about 75.7% of known retail turnover.
2. Collect: Respondents report VAT inclusive turnover per trading period, with calendar month reporters adjusted, while 50 to 60 large firms give the commodity split.
3. Edit and impute: Checks flag unlikely replies for review, including zeros and outliers, and gaps are filled by past sales scaled by responder growth.
4. Estimate value and index: Sample totals are scaled to the full population in thousands of pounds, using weekly averages to tame 5 week spikes. Results are indexed to a stated reference year equal to 100, so movement survives yearly weight updates.
5. Deflate: Each industry value is divided by a consumer price basket with yearly updated weights to give volume.
6. Chain link: Volumes are chain linked each year with updated weights under a Laspeyres chain. Building starts from detailed industries upward, with a link factor averaging three year end months.
7. Seasonally adjust and publish: Calendar corrections precede seasonal adjustment by X-13-ARIMA-SEATS at industry level, then results are summed excluding fuel industries. Growth equals the index divided by its prior value minus 1 times 100. Growth is computed on 4 decimal places then rounded to 1 decimal place.