Consumer Confidence

The UK Consumer Confidence Barometer, run by GfK, is a monthly survey of consumer sentiment, meaning how people feel about money and the economy. It interviews about 2000 people aged 16+ across the UK, using quotas, meaning preset targets, for age, sex, region and social class. It is a private survey, not official government statistics, and not the United States Conference Board gauge. It records stated opinions on household finances, the general economy, major purchases and saving, not actual spending or business sentiment.

Interviewing happens in the first half of the reference month, covering the early part of the month. Results appear near the end of the same month in a GfK release. Each release shows the 5 balances, the Savings Index, which is commented on but excluded from the headline, plus written commentary and charts. Each round is fresh with no stated revisions, so published scores stand as final, while negative readings signal net pessimism and concern.

The headline averages 5 equally weighted balances, each capturing a different view.

• Personal finances, past 12 months: captures how people say household finances changed over the past year.
• Personal finances, next 12 months: captures expected change in own household finances over the coming year.
• General economy, past 12 months: captures perceived change in the national economic backdrop over the past year.
• General economy, next 12 months: captures expectations for the national economy over the coming year, the most volatile part.
• Major Purchase Index: captures whether people think the time fits large buys like furniture.

Headline moves when any balance moves, but expectations for the economy often move most. An average can hide a larger expectations shock, so interview windows matter for reading consecutive results. The Savings Index can mislead because it appears alongside the headline yet stays outside it. European aggregates can move differently because they use seasonal adjustment while GfK keeps British data unadjusted.

Replies to the four finance and economy questions score 1 for a lot better, 0.5 for a little better and 0 for staying the same. They score -0.5 for a little worse and -1 for a lot worse. The spending climate question scores 1 for right time, 0 for neither and -1 for wrong time. For each of the 5 headline questions, take the mean score, meaning average reply, across respondents. The headline Overall Index Score is the simple mean, meaning equal-weight average, of the 5 question means. It sits on a -100 to 100 scale, published as whole numbers. Quotas for age, sex, region and class keep the sample, meaning those surveyed, representative, with no extra question weights. GfK applies no seasonal adjustment, meaning no smoothing for calendar seasons, unlike European aggregates. The estimated margin of error is +/-2%. Zero is the arithmetic balance point, so negative means net pessimism and positive means net optimism.