Measures the change in the total value of inflation-adjusted sales at the retail level compared to the same month in the previous year. It is a primary indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity. High readings suggest a robust economy and increased consumer confidence, often leading to inflationary pressure.
Calculated by surveying a broad sample of retail firms of various sizes and types across the country. The data is then weighted to represent the entire retail sector and adjusted for seasonal variations to ensure accuracy.
| Date | Actual | Forecast | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 28, 2026 | -0.30 | 0.90 | -1.20 |
| Jul 28, 2026 | 0.60 | 1.10 | -0.50 |
| Jun 29, 2026 | 1.30 | 1.20 | +0.10 |
| May 28, 2026 | 0.60 | 3.70 | -3.10 |
| Apr 28, 2026 | 4.10 | 3.50 | +0.60 |
| Mar 30, 2026 | 2.30 | 3.80 | -1.50 |
| Mar 11, 2026 | 4.00 | 4.20 | -0.20 |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 2.90 | 5.50 | -2.60 |
| Dec 30, 2025 | 6.00 | 3.60 | +2.40 |
| Nov 28, 2025 | 3.80 | 3.80 | 0.00 |
| Oct 29, 2025 | 4.20 | 4.20 | 0.00 |
| Sep 29, 2025 | 4.50 | 4.20 | +0.30 |
| Aug 29, 2025 | 4.70 | 5.80 | -1.10 |
| Jul 29, 2025 | 6.20 | 3.40 | +2.80 |
| Jun 27, 2025 | 4.80 | 3.90 | +0.90 |
| May 29, 2025 | 4.00 | 3.60 | +0.40 |
| Apr 28, 2025 | 3.60 | 3.60 | 0.00 |
| Mar 27, 2025 | 3.60 | 1.00 | +2.60 |
| Mar 12, 2025 | 2.20 | 3.20 | -1.00 |
| Jan 31, 2025 | 4.00 | 0.50 | +3.50 |
| Dec 27, 2024 | 1.00 | 2.80 | -1.80 |
| Nov 29, 2024 | 3.50 | 3.70 | -0.20 |
| Oct 28, 2024 | 4.10 | 1.50 | +2.60 |
| Sep 26, 2024 | 2.30 | 1.90 | +0.40 |
| Aug 30, 2024 | 1.00 | 0.50 | +0.50 |
| Jul 26, 2024 | 0.30 | 1.50 | -1.20 |
| Jun 27, 2024 | 0.20 | 1.00 | -0.80 |
| May 29, 2024 | 0.30 | 1.10 | -0.80 |
| Apr 26, 2024 | 0.60 | 0.80 | -0.20 |
| Mar 27, 2024 | 1.90 | 2.00 | -0.10 |
| Mar 11, 2024 | 0.30 | 3.70 | -3.40 |
| Jan 31, 2024 | 3.10 | 4.10 | -1.00 |
| Dec 28, 2023 | 5.20 | 5.50 | -0.30 |
| Nov 29, 2023 | 5.00 | 5.70 | -0.70 |
| Oct 27, 2023 | 6.50 | 6.80 | -0.30 |
| Sep 28, 2023 | 7.20 | 7.70 | -0.50 |
| Aug 29, 2023 | 7.30 | 7.10 | +0.20 |
| Jul 27, 2023 | 6.40 | 7.50 | -1.10 |
| Jun 28, 2023 | 6.00 | 0.60 | +5.40 |
| May 30, 2023 | 5.50 | 0.70 | +4.80 |
| Apr 27, 2023 | 9.50 | 5.50 | +4.00 |
| Mar 30, 2023 | 4.00 | — | — |
| Mar 10, 2023 | 5.50 | 0.50 | +5.00 |
| Jan 30, 2023 | 4.00 | 1.40 | +2.60 |
| Dec 29, 2022 | -0.60 | -5.70 | +5.10 |
| Nov 30, 2022 | 1.00 | -0.30 | +1.30 |
| Oct 31, 2022 | 0.10 | -1.10 | +1.20 |
| Aug 30, 2022 | -0.50 | 0.30 | -0.80 |
| Jul 28, 2022 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| Jun 29, 2022 | 1.40 | 1.30 | +0.10 |
| Date | First print | Current | Revision |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 28, 2026 | 0.50 | 0.60 | +0.10 ↑ |
| May 28, 2026 | 0.80 | 0.60 | -0.20 ↓ |
| Mar 30, 2026 | 2.20 | 2.30 | +0.10 ↑ |
