Measures the change in the total value of inflation-adjusted sales at the retail level compared to the same month in the previous year. It is a primary indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity. High readings suggest a robust economy and increased consumer confidence, often leading to inflationary pressure.
Calculated by surveying a broad sample of retail firms of various sizes and types across the country. The data is then weighted to represent the entire retail sector and adjusted for seasonal variations to ensure accuracy.
| Date | Actual | Forecast | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 25, 2026 | — | 6.90 | — |
| Aug 25, 2026 | 6.70 | 4.00 | +2.70 |
| Jul 28, 2026 | 4.80 | 2.30 | +2.50 |
| Jun 24, 2026 | 3.70 | 1.00 | +2.70 |
| May 22, 2026 | 1.40 | 5.90 | -4.50 |
| Apr 24, 2026 | 7.00 | 2.70 | +4.30 |
| Mar 25, 2026 | 1.90 | 3.20 | -1.30 |
| Mar 2, 2026 | 3.80 | 3.60 | +0.20 |
| Jan 27, 2026 | 3.30 | 4.00 | -0.70 |
| Dec 19, 2025 | 4.70 | 4.40 | +0.30 |
| Nov 27, 2025 | 4.90 | 3.00 | +1.90 |
| Oct 27, 2025 | 3.50 | 2.60 | +0.90 |
| Sep 26, 2025 | 2.50 | 2.90 | -0.40 |
| Aug 27, 2025 | 2.70 | 1.90 | +0.80 |
| Jul 28, 2025 | 1.40 | 3.40 | -2.00 |
| Jun 27, 2025 | 4.00 | 5.10 | -1.10 |
| May 27, 2025 | 4.90 | 1.90 | +3.00 |
| Apr 28, 2025 | 1.60 | 1.10 | +0.50 |
| Mar 27, 2025 | -0.10 | 5.90 | -6.00 |
| Feb 27, 2025 | 5.50 | 1.90 | +3.60 |
| Jan 27, 2025 | 1.50 | 3.50 | -2.00 |
| Dec 20, 2024 | 3.40 | 3.50 | -0.10 |
| Nov 28, 2024 | 3.30 | 0.20 | +3.10 |
| Oct 25, 2024 | 0.50 | — | — |
| Sep 27, 2024 | 3.10 | 0.80 | +2.30 |
| Aug 30, 2024 | 3.90 | 2.90 | +1.00 |
| Jul 26, 2024 | 0.80 | -5.90 | +6.70 |
| Jun 27, 2024 | 2.90 | -5.00 | +7.90 |
| May 28, 2024 | 0.20 | 4.40 | -4.20 |
| Apr 30, 2024 | 3.70 | 4.00 | -0.30 |
| Mar 26, 2024 | 6.60 | 4.90 | +1.70 |
| Feb 28, 2024 | 5.80 | 4.00 | +1.80 |
| Jan 26, 2024 | 4.50 | 5.90 | -1.40 |
| Dec 22, 2023 | 6.30 | 4.00 | +2.30 |
| Nov 28, 2023 | 3.70 | 3.40 | +0.30 |
| Oct 27, 2023 | 1.30 | -3.80 | +5.10 |
| Sep 28, 2023 | -1.00 | — | — |
| Aug 28, 2023 | -5.40 | — | — |
| Jul 28, 2023 | 2.00 | — | — |
| Jun 28, 2023 | -0.40 | — | — |
| May 30, 2023 | -6.00 | — | — |
| Apr 28, 2023 | -4.60 | — | — |
| Mar 29, 2023 | -4.30 | — | — |
| Feb 24, 2023 | -6.20 | — | — |
| Jan 26, 2023 | -7.80 | — | — |
| Dec 23, 2022 | -7.30 | — | — |
| Nov 25, 2022 | -10.30 | — | — |
| Oct 27, 2022 | -5.40 | — | — |
| Sep 28, 2022 | -5.00 | — | — |
| Aug 26, 2022 | -9.10 | — | — |
| Jul 28, 2022 | -9.00 | — | — |
| Date | First print | Current | Revision |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 28, 2026 | 4.80 | 4.80 | 0 ↓ |
| Jun 24, 2026 | 3.80 | 3.70 | -0.10 ↓ |
| May 22, 2026 | 1.30 | 1.40 | +0.10 ↑ |
| Apr 24, 2026 | 7.10 | 7 | -0.10 ↓ |
| Mar 25, 2026 | 2.20 | 1.90 | -0.30 ↓ |
