Measures the change in the total value of inflation-adjusted sales at the retail level compared to the same month in the previous year. It is a primary indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity. High readings suggest a robust economy and increased consumer confidence, often leading to inflationary pressure.
Calculated by surveying a broad sample of retail firms of various sizes and types across the country. The data is then weighted to represent the entire retail sector and adjusted for seasonal variations to ensure accuracy.
| Date | Actual | Forecast | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 5, 2026 | 3.60 | 3.90 | -0.30 |
| Jul 7, 2026 | 4.70 | 3.30 | +1.40 |
| Jun 5, 2026 | 0.80 | 3.60 | -2.80 |
| May 11, 2026 | 4.90 | 3.40 | +1.50 |
| Apr 7, 2026 | 3.70 | 3.80 | -0.10 |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 5.00 | 2.80 | +2.20 |
| Feb 5, 2026 | 1.80 | 3.50 | -1.70 |
| Jan 15, 2026 | 4.60 | 3.40 | +1.20 |
| Dec 5, 2025 | 2.80 | 3.00 | -0.20 |
| Nov 7, 2025 | 2.60 | 4.00 | -1.40 |
| Oct 8, 2025 | 3.50 | 3.20 | +0.30 |
| Sep 5, 2025 | 2.50 | 4.30 | -1.80 |
| Aug 7, 2025 | 4.50 | 5.00 | -0.50 |
| Jul 4, 2025 | 5.30 | 5.20 | +0.10 |
| Jun 4, 2025 | 5.80 | 3.20 | +2.60 |
| May 9, 2025 | 3.40 | 3.40 | 0.00 |
| Apr 4, 2025 | 3.80 | 3.50 | +0.30 |
| Mar 13, 2025 | 2.80 | 4.20 | -1.40 |
| Feb 5, 2025 | 6.20 | 4.10 | +2.10 |
| Jan 13, 2025 | 4.30 | 4.50 | -0.20 |
| Dec 6, 2024 | 5.50 | 4.90 | +0.60 |
| Nov 7, 2024 | 5.60 | 5.50 | +0.10 |
| Oct 8, 2024 | 5.30 | 4.20 | +1.10 |
| Sep 5, 2024 | 4.50 | 3.90 | +0.60 |
| Aug 5, 2024 | 4.40 | 4.10 | +0.30 |
| Jul 4, 2024 | 4.40 | 5.30 | -0.90 |
| Jun 5, 2024 | 5.30 | 5.50 | -0.20 |
| May 9, 2024 | 6.10 | 2.70 | +3.40 |
| Apr 5, 2024 | 1.60 | 2.30 | -0.70 |
| Mar 12, 2024 | 2.40 | 0.30 | +2.10 |
| Feb 7, 2024 | 1.60 | 0.70 | +0.90 |
| Jan 12, 2024 | 0.90 | -2.00 | +2.90 |
| Dec 6, 2023 | -1.40 | 0.80 | -2.20 |
| Nov 7, 2023 | -4.00 | -0.50 | -3.50 |
| Oct 6, 2023 | -2.80 | — | — |
| Sep 7, 2023 | -1.80 | — | — |
| Aug 4, 2023 | -4.10 | — | — |
| Jul 10, 2023 | -6.10 | — | — |
| Jun 7, 2023 | -7.70 | -6.60 | -1.10 |
| May 5, 2023 | -8.10 | — | — |
| Apr 5, 2023 | -6.40 | -7.00 | +0.60 |
| Mar 14, 2023 | -7.70 | -7.70 | 0.00 |
| Feb 7, 2023 | -7.30 | -5.60 | -1.70 |
| Jan 12, 2023 | -8.70 | — | — |
| Dec 6, 2022 | -9.40 | — | — |
| Nov 8, 2022 | -5.60 | — | — |
| Oct 6, 2022 | -7.60 | — | — |
| Sep 7, 2022 | -8.50 | — | — |
| Aug 5, 2022 | -6.00 | — | — |
| Jul 11, 2022 | -6.90 | -1.50 | -5.40 |
| Date | First print | Current | Revision |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 7, 2026 | 4.70 | 4.70 | 0 ↓ |
| Jun 5, 2026 | 1.60 | 0.80 | -0.80 ↓ |
| May 11, 2026 | 4.90 | 4.90 | 0 ↓ |
| Apr 7, 2026 | 4.10 | 3.70 | -0.40 ↓ |
