Measures the change in the total value of inflation-adjusted sales at the retail level compared to the same month in the previous year. It is a primary indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity. High readings suggest a robust economy and increased consumer confidence, often leading to inflationary pressure.
Calculated by surveying a broad sample of retail firms of various sizes and types across the country. The data is then weighted to represent the entire retail sector and adjusted for seasonal variations to ensure accuracy.
| Date | Actual | Forecast | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 14, 2026 | 14.70 | 13.60 | +1.10 |
| Jul 15, 2026 | 11.70 | 11.20 | +0.50 |
| Jun 16, 2026 | 14.90 | 11.40 | +3.50 |
| May 15, 2026 | 13.40 | 10.10 | +3.30 |
| Apr 16, 2026 | 10.90 | 9.80 | +1.10 |
| Mar 16, 2026 | 7.80 | 10.10 | -2.30 |
| Feb 13, 2026 | 11.00 | 9.70 | +1.30 |
| Jan 23, 2026 | 7.50 | 8.60 | -1.10 |
| Dec 15, 2025 | 10.00 | 12.00 | -2.00 |
| Nov 14, 2025 | 14.40 | 6.20 | +8.20 |
| Oct 15, 2025 | 12.40 | 14.00 | -1.60 |
| Sep 16, 2025 | 17.90 | 11.60 | +6.30 |
| Aug 14, 2025 | 10.10 | 11.70 | -1.60 |
| Jul 15, 2025 | 13.20 | 12.40 | +0.80 |
| Jun 13, 2025 | 11.40 | 8.50 | +2.90 |
| May 14, 2025 | 12.70 | 9.80 | +2.90 |
| Apr 15, 2025 | 7.50 | 7.70 | -0.20 |
| Mar 14, 2025 | 10.20 | 6.80 | +3.40 |
| Feb 14, 2025 | 7.80 | 8.70 | -0.90 |
| Jan 17, 2025 | 10.40 | 4.00 | +6.40 |
| Dec 16, 2024 | 9.00 | 4.10 | +4.90 |
| Nov 14, 2024 | 1.50 | 3.80 | -2.30 |
| Oct 15, 2024 | 5.20 | 1.90 | +3.30 |
| Sep 16, 2024 | 1.60 | 2.00 | -0.40 |
| Aug 14, 2024 | 1.50 | -1.50 | +3.00 |
| Jul 15, 2024 | -1.70 | 1.00 | -2.70 |
| Jun 14, 2024 | -1.60 | 1.60 | -3.20 |
| May 14, 2024 | -5.60 | -2.80 | -2.80 |
| Apr 15, 2024 | -1.80 | -4.20 | +2.40 |
| Mar 15, 2024 | -3.90 | -3.00 | -0.90 |
| Feb 14, 2024 | -4.70 | -2.70 | -2.00 |
| Jan 17, 2024 | -3.40 | -7.40 | +4.00 |
| Dec 15, 2023 | -11.00 | -7.50 | -3.50 |
| Nov 14, 2023 | -9.30 | -7.50 | -1.80 |
| Oct 13, 2023 | -10.00 | -8.00 | -2.00 |
| Sep 15, 2023 | -8.20 | -7.00 | -1.20 |
| Aug 14, 2023 | -11.90 | — | — |
| Jul 14, 2023 | -5.10 | -5.00 | -0.10 |
| Jun 15, 2023 | -6.90 | -5.00 | -1.90 |
| May 12, 2023 | -7.10 | — | — |
| Apr 14, 2023 | 0.10 | — | — |
| Mar 15, 2023 | 1.20 | 0.60 | +0.60 |
| Feb 14, 2023 | -1.80 | 0.50 | -2.30 |
| Jan 17, 2023 | 1.70 | 2.30 | -0.60 |
| Dec 15, 2022 | 1.90 | — | — |
| Nov 11, 2022 | 7.20 | 7.10 | +0.10 |
| Oct 14, 2022 | 8.10 | 7.50 | +0.60 |
| Sep 15, 2022 | 7.70 | 12.80 | -5.10 |
| Aug 12, 2022 | 17.20 | 18.00 | -0.80 |
| Jul 15, 2022 | 34.80 | 27.00 | +7.80 |
