The Year-over-Year Economic Activity indicator measures the change in the total output of an economy compared to the same month in the previous year. This metric helps filter out seasonal noise and provides a clearer picture of long-term economic trends and structural growth. It is widely used by analysts to determine if an economy is in an expansionary or recessionary phase relative to its historical performance.
It is calculated by comparing the current month's economic activity index value to the index value of the same month from the prior year, expressed as a percentage change.
| Date | Actual | Forecast | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 1, 2026 | -1.50 | 0.40 | -1.90 |
| Aug 3, 2026 | 2.00 | 1.50 | +0.50 |
| Jul 1, 2026 | -0.90 | 0.20 | -1.10 |
| Jun 1, 2026 | -1.20 | -0.60 | -0.60 |
| May 4, 2026 | -0.10 | 2.30 | -2.40 |
| Apr 1, 2026 | -0.30 | 1.90 | -2.20 |
| Mar 2, 2026 | -0.10 | 1.10 | -1.20 |
| Feb 2, 2026 | 1.70 | 0.90 | +0.80 |
| Jan 2, 2026 | 1.20 | 2.30 | -1.10 |
| Nov 3, 2025 | 3.20 | 3.10 | +0.10 |
| Apr 1, 2025 | -0.10 | 0.80 | -0.90 |
| Mar 3, 2025 | 2.50 | — | — |
| Oct 1, 2024 | 2.30 | — | — |
| Sep 2, 2024 | 4.20 | 2.70 | +1.50 |
| Jul 1, 2024 | 1.10 | — | — |
| Jun 3, 2024 | 3.50 | 4.00 | -0.50 |
| May 2, 2024 | 0.80 | 2.00 | -1.20 |
| Apr 1, 2024 | 4.50 | — | — |
| Date | First print | Current | Revision |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 3, 2026 | 2.40 | 2 | -0.40 ↓ |
| May 4, 2026 | -0.10 | -0.10 | 0 ↓ |
