Balance of Trade

The Balance of Trade is the goods trade balance (exports minus imports) from Swiss foreign trade statistics, reported in CHF billions. It is a monthly census (complete count) of electronic customs declarations from all importers and exporters, with no sampling. It uses special trade with imports cleared for domestic use by origin and exports leaving territory by destination, covering Liechtenstein and Buesingen but not Samnaun. It covers all movable goods including electricity and uses Total 1 without gold, gems, art and antiques, excluding services covered by the Swiss National Bank.

The reference month is the calendar month when customs accepts the declaration; electricity (power) data arrive 3 months late and are estimated meanwhile. Swiss-Impex (the online trade database) publishes at 08:00 Swiss time within 30 days after month end, on a calendar fixed 6 months ahead. Each release adds a press summary by products and countries, breakdowns by canton, transport, currency and size, plus nominal, real, working-day, seasonal and trend series. Data stay provisional (subject to change) with monthly revisions, turn final in May of the next year; the annual report follows in September.

The surplus rests on two or three strong export branches against structural import branches on the Total 1 scope.

• Chemical and pharmaceutical products, 49.4%: the largest export branch and the main surplus contributor.
• Machines and electronics, 12.0%: the second export branch; the group is a net importer overall.
• Watches, 9.8%: a major export branch and surplus contributor.
• Precision instruments: a surplus contributor branch.
• Vehicles, energy sources, textiles, clothing and shoes: the main structural import surplus branches tied to consumption and energy.
• Food, beverages and tobacco, metals: traditional branches moving with prices, domestic demand and industry.

In 2023 exports were CHF 274.1 bn (minus 1.3% nominal, plus 2.5% real) and imports CHF 225.9 bn (minus 3.8% nominal, minus 1.9% real). The surplus rose 13% (+CHF 5.5 bn) to CHF 48.3 bn from CHF 42.8 bn, the second highest surplus on record. Lower energy prices cut import values while 9 of 11 export groups fell, mainly in Q2 and Q4 in seasonally adjusted terms. Only chem/pharma, watches and precision instruments held surpluses while vehicles, energy and textiles dragged, so read the surplus with nominal and real splits.

1. Collect: gather every import and export declaration accepted in the calendar month via e-dec and Passar, a census with plausibility checks. Estimate missing flows including electricity with ARIMA (a statistical model).
2. Value and classify: value each flow in CHF and code it by 8-digit Harmonized System tariff with CPA and NOGA keys by origin or destination.
3. Aggregate: sum exports to X and imports to M on Total 1 (headline scope without gold, gems, art and antiques).
4. Balance: compute B = X minus M in CHF; positive means export surplus (exports exceed imports) and negative means import surplus.
5. Adjust and compare: derive nominal and real yearly rates split from prices with the unit value index. Adjust series for working days with RegARIMA and for seasonality with X-12-ARIMA by indirect sums of groups for Total 1 only. Totals are summed from adjusted groups, so adjusted yearly sums differ, revised monthly back to 1997.
6. Example: illustrative March exports X = CHF 23.10 bn and imports M = CHF 18.54 bn give B = CHF +4.56 bn, an export surplus.