procure.ch Manufacturing PMI

The procure.ch Manufacturing PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index) tracks Swiss industry since January 1995 through a monthly survey of over 300 purchasing managers. Procure.ch, the Swiss purchasing association, runs the survey, while UBS (formerly Credit Suisse) evaluates and publishes the results.

It follows the guidelines of the International Federation of Purchasing and Supply Management, tested in the United States for decades. Members answer whether output, orders and staffing are higher, the same or lower than the prior month. The result is a diffusion index, a share of improving versus worsening respondents, not official output volumes, growth rates or services.

Purchasing managers report during the reference month, and results appear on the first working day after it ends. It is released in the morning, Zurich time, or the next working day after weekends and Swiss holidays.

The same report also publishes the services PMI, full component tables, history tables, charts against 50 and economist commentary. Markets read the level against 50, where above means expansion breadth and below means contraction breadth, alongside month-on-month and year-on-year point changes. Readings stand as final, with no revision policy stated.

Five weighted components form the headline, with demand and output carrying the most weight.

• Backlog of orders, 30%: captures incoming demand momentum and order book breadth, and carries the largest weight.
• Output, 25%: captures current production breadth across reporting factories.
• Employment, 20%: captures hiring versus layoff breadth among manufacturers.
• Suppliers' delivery times, 15%: captures delivery speed, where longer waits score higher, so read it with caution.
• Stocks of purchases, 10%: captures stockpiling versus destocking of inputs (raw materials and parts).

In November 2021 the headline read 62.5 points, down 2.9 points on the month but up 8.0 on the year. Output breadth fell to 52.5, its weakest since the spring 2020 rebound, as supply problems held back factories despite solid backlogs. Firms rebuilt input stocks at a pace unseen since 1995, while delivery times lengthened and purchase prices rose broadly. The contrast teaches the lesson: the PMI tracks respondent breadth, and jammed supply chains can hold the headline up.

1. Diffusion level: For each component, add the % answering higher plus half the % answering same. For example, 30% higher and 50% same gives 30 + 25 = 55.0.
2. Weighted average (a blend using fixed weights): Combine the five components by their weights. PMI equals 0.30 x backlog plus 0.25 x output plus 0.20 x employment plus 0.15 x delivery times plus 0.10 x stocks.
3. Seasonal adjustment (a correction for normal seasonal swings): Adjust each component, then build the headline from adjusted components. The method follows the model of the American National Association of Purchasing Management (NAPM).
4. Read against 50: Above 50 means expansion breadth, while below 50 means contraction breadth.