Industrial Production YoY

Industrial Production YoY compares Swiss industrial output with the year-earlier quarter or month; rises mean expansion and falls mean contraction, with no threshold level. It comes from the FSO Industry Production, Orders and Turnover Statistics (the Swiss statistics agency survey, short name INDPAU). It covers NOGA sections B to E (the Swiss activity code for mining, manufacturing, energy and water), not construction. Production means volume stripped of price moves, turnover means sales including prices, while orders track demand separately.

The FSO publishes it quarterly for the secondary sector (industry plus construction) at 08:30 Swiss local time, about 7 to 8 weeks after quarter end. Each release shows monthly production and turnover plus quarterly received and on-hand orders (new and pending demand), split by domestic and foreign markets. It also publishes construction totals, the combined secondary aggregate and calendar-adjusted series (cleared of working day effects), with seasonal reruns revising the series each quarter. Results are provisional until revised; the National Bank and State Secretariat for Economic Affairs see data 5 working days early and agencies 15 minutes early.

5 industry groups drive the index, while orders and turnover add demand context.

• Manufacturing: the core factory branch, including mechanical engineering, a traditional driver of Swiss industry.
• Mining and quarrying: small-scale extraction output counted within industry totals.
• Electricity, gas, steam and air-conditioning supply: energy output supplied from energy office and gas association data, not direct survey.
• Refined petroleum products: refinery output supplied from compulsory stockpiling agency data, not direct survey.
• Water supply and waste: water and waste services inside industry scope, also fed from secondary sources.
• Orders received and orders on hand: quarterly new and pending demand split by domestic and foreign markets, shown beside production.

In Q2 2021 secondary production rose 14.2% and turnover rose 15.5%, while industrial production alone rose 15.7% (April +16.1%, May +17.4%, June +13.1%). The FSO release of August 19, 2021 said the jump largely reflected weak Q2 2020 output under pandemic measures, a classic base effect. Construction production rose only 6.5% and civil engineering fell 2.1%, so industry and construction diverged. A 2-year comparison with Q2 2019 showed industry production up only 5.0%, separating recovery from rebound.

1. Collect turnover: gather monthly turnover by activity, split by domestic and foreign provenance (origin of demand), and add energy and petroleum data from secondary sources.
2. Deflate to volume: divide each activity turnover index by its production price index and multiply by 100 to strip price moves. For example, turnover 110.0 with prices at 105.0 gives production of 104.8.
3. Weight and aggregate: combine activity volumes using National Accounts weights (importance shares from economic accounts). For example, weights 0.7 and 0.3 with volumes 104.8 and 98.0 give an industry index of 102.8.
4. Index and year-on-year rate: express the total as an index with base 2021 as 100. Then compare with the same period a year earlier. For example, 102.8 against 100.0 a year earlier gives a rise of 2.8%.
5. Adjust for calendar and seasonality: correct for working days and holidays. Remove regular seasonal swings with the X-12-ARIMA method (a standard seasonal filter), rerunning the series each quarter.