Gross Domestic Product YoY

Gross Domestic Product YoY (GDP, domestic final output valued at market prices) compares real output in 1 quarter with the year-ago quarter. Real means adjusted for price changes, so the rate tracks volume rather than cash value, and quarterly moves stay plain, never scaled into yearly pace. It covers the entire Swiss economy, runs quarterly under ESA 2010 (European accounting rules) with data from 1995, retropolated (extended backward) from 1980. SECO builds it as a synthesis (a modelled blend, not a survey) from production, jobs, price and trade data, and values above 0% mark expansion.

The reference period is the quarter itself, and quarterly indicators available around 45 to 60 days after quarter-end feed each estimate. A flash (first estimate) of adjusted growth appears around day 45 from production components, and full accounts follow around day 60 at 09:00 Bern time. Each August or September release folds in new annual results and revises affected quarters, and the Q4 release adds a first provisional annual total. Each round also revises newest quarters, re-runs seasonal factors, and states no market rule, though press links faster growth to a firmer franc.

SECO publishes no fixed weights, since volumes use previous-year prices with chain-linking (linking yearly changes), so contributions shift yearly.

• Manufacturing: captures industrial value added (sales minus input costs) and forms the most cyclical, export-driven part.
• Accommodation and food services: captures tourism and hospitality output and reacts strongest to travel shutdowns.
• Arts, entertainment and recreation: captures leisure output including the sport-event channel from federations domiciled in Switzerland.
• Finance and insurance: captures banking and insurance output earned from interest margins (lending spreads) and commissions.
• Private consumption: captures household spending and usually drives the expenditure side with government consumption and investment.
• Exports of goods and services: captures sales abroad, which lift GDP while imports subtract from it.

The February 29, 2024 release teaches how sport adjustment changes the print: Q4 2023 grew 0.3% after 0.3% in the prior quarter. Year on year it printed 1.2% sport-adjusted versus 0.6% unadjusted, so the sport wedge is nearly half the print. Manufacturing slipped 0.1% on weak chemicals and pharma at 2.3% amid falling exports, while accommodation and food rose 3.5% and finance rose 1.0%. Arts fell 48.9% unadjusted versus 1.4% adjusted, and full-year 2023 grew 1.3% adjusted after 2.5%.

1. Annual anchor: start from Federal Statistical Office yearly levels under ESA 2010, which bind the quarters.
2. Temporal disaggregation: split each annual value into quarters with production, jobs, price and trade indicators. When the annual value is known, the 4 quarters must sum to it exactly.
3. Production total: add value added across industry groups, then add taxes on products (sales taxes) and subtract subsidies (government support payments).
4. Expenditure (spending) check: sum private and government consumption, equipment and construction investment, plus exports minus imports and inventory change. Treat the inventory line with care, since it holds the statistical gap between approaches.
5. Income check: check the published income approach for consistency, which does not set the headline figure.
6. From nominal to real: revalue output at previous-year prices and chain-link yearly changes, so the base year never affects growth. Then run X-13ARIMA-SEATS seasonal and calendar adjustment on the national working-day calendar.
7. Year-on-year rate: compare real output with the same quarter 1 year earlier as a % change, published sport-adjusted and unadjusted in Tables 3–4. For illustration only, prior-year Q4 at 195.0 and this Q4 at 197.3 give (197.3 minus 195.0) divided by 195.0 times 100, about 1.2%.
8. Sport smoothing: spread each tournament year's extra value added across its four-year cycle, keeping four-year totals identical to raw data.