Gross Domestic Product QoQ

Swiss Gross Domestic Product QoQ, meaning change versus the previous quarter, tracks Swiss output from SECO, the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs. It covers the whole economy by production, meaning value added, expenditure, meaning spending plus net exports, and income, meaning production earnings. The headline is the real, meaning price-adjusted, rate after seasonal and calendar adjustment, meaning seasonal and working-day effects removed, plus sport-event smoothing. It is not Gross National Income, meaning income of residents, nor output per person, nor a gauge of where events physically occur. The quarterly series runs back to Q1 1980.

SECO publishes quarterly estimates about 60 days after quarter-end and a flash, meaning early estimate, about 45 days after. Releases appear at 09:00 Bern time, dates are provisional, every release can revise prior quarters and benchmarks can rework long history. Each release brings a press release, data annex, Excel tables in 4 adjustment variants plus sport-event variants, machine-readable files and cycle analysis. Results each August anchor the prior 3 years, and the real sport-event adjusted headline reads positive as expansion and negative as contraction, with no target.

Moves come from industry value added, meaning output minus inputs, and from final spending plus net exports, meaning exports minus imports.

• Manufacturing: industry value added including chemicals and pharmaceuticals, often the largest swing source.
• Construction: building and civil engineering value added.
• Trade: wholesale and retail margins that mirror consumption.
• Finance and insurance: commission and interest margin business, often volatile.
• Consumption and investment: private and government consumption plus equipment, software and construction investment.
• Foreign trade: exports minus imports of goods and services, with services sensitive to sport events.

In Q1 2023, sport-event adjusted GDP rose 0.5% after 0.0% in Q4 2022, while unadjusted growth was only 0.3% and 0.0%. Arts, entertainment and recreation, meaning sport licence income, rose 1.2% adjusted but fell 24.9% unadjusted as the 2022 World Cup effect dropped out. Services exports fell 0.9% adjusted versus 5.5% unadjusted, while private consumption rose 0.6%, equipment 2.6% and goods exports 4.0%. Manufacturing rose 0.3% after 3 negative quarters, and SECO warned revisions could run larger than usual on a new current-account survey.

1. Annual anchor: SECO splits annual values from FSO, the office compiling annual accounts, using quarterly indicators, with 4 quarters summing to the annual total. Beyond the last annual year, the same method extrapolates.
2. Production approach: GDP equals summed industry value added, meaning output at basic prices minus inputs at purchaser prices, plus taxes on products minus subsidies. For example, value added of 200 plus 200 plus net taxes of 20 gives GDP of 420.
3. Expenditure identity: GDP equals private plus government consumption plus equipment, software and construction investment plus inventory change plus exports minus imports. Goods are shown excluding valuables, meaning precious goods, and services with and without sport-event adjustment.
4. Real volumes: Each year is valued at previous-year prices and chain-linked, meaning yearly growth rates are multiplied into an index. For example, real output of 433 versus 420 gives 3.1%, and moving the reference year leaves that rate unchanged. That 3.1% equals the prior index multiplied by 1.031.
5. Seasonal, calendar and sport-event adjustment: Seasonal and calendar adjustment uses X-13ARIMA-SEATS to remove recurring seasonal and working-day effects. Sport-event smoothing spreads event licence income across 5 years. Shares are 12.5%, 25%, 25%, 25% and 12.5% for years t-2 to t+2, added to an event-free path after quarterly splitting.
6. Revision: Each release re-runs the chain on the annual anchor and available indicators, so past quarters move.