GDP Growth Rate QoQ

GDP (gross domestic product) is the value of all goods and services produced inside Switzerland. This indicator reports its quarter-on-quarter change versus the previous 3 months in real terms, meaning volume at prior-year prices rather than cash spending. It covers the whole economy of all resident producers under ESA 2010, the European System of Accounts, from production, spending and income data. SECO, the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs, builds quarterly figures from annual benchmarks, not welfare, income per person or nominal sales.

Arabic outlets call it Swiss GDP growth and calendars label it quarterly GDP seasonally adjusted.

An early flash estimate appears around 45 days after quarter end from early production data, with gaps filled by estimates. Full figures follow around 60 days after quarter end with a press release, data appendix, tables and the Konjunkturtendenzen report, SECO's quarterly economic analysis. Autumn releases fold in revised annual data, while quarterly history is routinely revised 3 years back and benchmark revisions, periodic method overhauls, rework longer spans. The flash is replaced by the full release on updated data, and seasonal adjustment models, which remove calendar and seasonal effects, are reviewed each quarter.

Growth reflects production and spending together, shown as growth contributions in percentage points with no fixed weights.

• Manufacturing: covers goods value added, where pharma often steadies against machinery and watch swings.
• Construction: covers building and civil value added plus construction investment.
• Trade including merchanting: covers wholesale, retail and vehicle repair, where merchanting can dominate quarterly moves.
• Accommodation and food services: captures tourism value, the most volatile part in shocks.
• Finance and insurance: captures value from interest and commissions.
• Demand, other services and net taxes: combines real estate, public, health and arts with largest private consumption, equipment investment and net product taxes.

During the 2nd quarter of 2020 GDP fell 8.2% in the August 27, 2020 estimate after a 2.5% fall, the largest drop since 1980. Manufacturing fell 9.0% while drugs makers raised turnover to soften the fall, and accommodation and food services fell 54.2%. Transport and communications lost 21.7% while trade fell only 3.6% on merchanting growth.

The September 28, 2020 revision eased the fall to 7.3% as chemical-pharma value added rose 0.3% and steadied industry. Private consumption fell 8.1%, equipment investment 10.0% and goods exports 6.5% with no change to the cycle reading, the shock-estimate lesson.

1. Annual anchor: Start from Federal Statistical Office annual national accounts levels, which bind the quarters so 4 quarters sum to the year.
2. Split into quarters: Spread each annual value across quarters using indicators such as factory output, construction, jobs and tax turnover data.
3. Deflate and chain-link: Convert nominal values to volumes at prior-year prices, link years into a chained series for comparison, with no reference-year effect on rates.
4. Combine the three sides: Combine production as value added plus net product taxes with spending as consumption plus investment plus exports minus imports. Add income as employee compensation plus surplus and net taxes.
5. Seasonal, calendar and sport adjustment: Remove seasonal and working-day patterns with X-13ARIMA-SEATS. Then smooth tournament income across its 4-year cycle so four years sum to raw data.
6. Compute the quarterly rate: Divide this quarter's adjusted real level by last quarter's, subtract 1 and multiply by 100. Publish the result to 1 decimal place as % change over the previous quarter.

Illustrative example: an adjusted chained level of 185.0 followed by 185.6 gives (185.6/185.0-1)x100=+0.324% shown as +0.3%. A part rising from 33.0 to 33.5 adds about (0.5/185.0)x100=+0.27 points.