SECO Consumer Climate

SECO Consumer Climate, officially Consumer Sentiment, is the Swiss survey of household confidence from the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO). It asks residents aged 16 and over about the economy, prices, jobs and home finances in 14 questions. It records opinions only, not actual spending, retail sales, inflation or unemployment. The sample is stratified by region, with extra Ticino invites rebalanced by weights. Answers arrive online in 3 languages: German, French and Italian. The series starts in the 4th quarter of 1972, ran quarterly by phone until 2023, then shifted to a continuous rolling survey with weekly slices. Monthly data exist from January 2023, and SECO publishes results monthly since 15 February 2024.

Each monthly value uses answers given during that calendar month, drawn from a continuous online survey with weekly invites and reminders. SECO publishes each result early in the month after the measured month. Each release brings a short notice with charts and tables, plus a footnote with the respondent count. Methods change only as needed, with no revision calendar. The 2023 parallel run shifted pre-2024 history onto new survey levels, with old values kept. The quarterly series uses X-13ARIMA-SEATS for calendar and seasonal effects, while monthly values carry no adjustment and suit year-on-year reads.

The headline averages 4 parts, so each part pulls it in its own direction.

• Economic outlook for next year, 25%: expected general economy over the next 12 months.
• Past financial situation, 25%: household finances over the prior 12 months.
• Financial outlook, 25%: expected household finances over the next 12 months.
• Moment to make major purchases, 25%: whether it is a good time for large buys, on a narrower scale.

Other sub-indices sit outside the headline since 2019, covering past economy, prices, jobs, savings, planned buys and reasons. Before 2019 the basket differed, with unemployment signed negatively.

The October 2022 survey, published on 1 November 2022, set the record low at -47, the lowest since 1972. It fell from -42 in July 2022, -28 in the second quarter and -4 in the first quarter. Expected economy stood at -57.2 against an average of -9, past finances at -39.7, expected finances at -46.9 and buying timing at -42.4. Past prices reached 131 and expected prices 105. Job security at -26 barely moved and unemployment expectations at 39 stayed below average. The gloom came from budgets and prices, not jobs. That release ended quarterly press releases.

January 2024 stood at -41, above -53 in October 2023 yet below -35 in January 2023, with outlook at -28.

1. Coding answers: each answer gets points from +2 for much better to -2 for much worse, while buying timing uses +1, 0 or -1. Unemployment outlook is inverted, so higher means more unemployment.

1. Sub-index, or part: each part is its weighted mean times 100. Standard parts span -200 to +200, while buying timing spans -100 to +100. For example, 5 answers of +2, +1, 0, -1 and -2 average to 0, giving a sub-index of 0.

1. Building the headline: the index is the mean of its 4 parts, giving a fixed range of -175 to +175. It matches EU concepts. For example, parts at 0, -60, -40 and -38 give -138 divided by 4, or -34.5 points.

1. Seasonal adjustment, or removal of calendar effects: the quarterly series uses X-13ARIMA-SEATS, while monthly values use no adjustment and suit year-on-year reads.