Measures the change in the total value of inflation-adjusted sales at the retail level compared to the same month in the previous year. It is a primary indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity. High readings suggest a robust economy and increased consumer confidence, often leading to inflationary pressure.
Calculated by surveying a broad sample of retail firms of various sizes and types across the country. The data is then weighted to represent the entire retail sector and adjusted for seasonal variations to ensure accuracy.
| Date | Actual | Forecast | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 1, 2026 | 2.30 | 1.30 | +1.00 |
| Jul 31, 2026 | 1.90 | 3.20 | -1.30 |
| Jul 1, 2026 | 3.40 | 0.80 | +2.60 |
| Jun 1, 2026 | 1.60 | 0.20 | +1.40 |
| May 1, 2026 | 1.30 | 1.00 | +0.30 |
| Apr 1, 2026 | 0.40 | 0.90 | -0.50 |
| Mar 2, 2026 | -1.10 | 2.70 | -3.80 |
| Feb 2, 2026 | 2.90 | 2.50 | +0.40 |
| Jan 5, 2026 | 2.30 | 2.50 | -0.20 |
| Dec 1, 2025 | 2.70 | 1.20 | +1.50 |
| Oct 31, 2025 | 1.50 | 0.30 | +1.20 |
| Oct 1, 2025 | -0.20 | 0.50 | -0.70 |
| Sep 1, 2025 | 0.70 | 3.60 | -2.90 |
| Jul 31, 2025 | 3.80 | 0.20 | +3.60 |
| Jul 1, 2025 | 0.00 | 0.80 | -0.80 |
| Jun 2, 2025 | 1.30 | 2.50 | -1.20 |
| May 1, 2025 | 2.20 | 1.70 | +0.50 |
| Apr 1, 2025 | 1.60 | 1.50 | +0.10 |
| Feb 28, 2025 | 1.30 | 1.60 | -0.30 |
| Jan 31, 2025 | 2.60 | 0.60 | +2.00 |
| Jan 6, 2025 | 0.80 | 1.20 | -0.40 |
| Dec 2, 2024 | 1.40 | 2.70 | -1.30 |
| Nov 1, 2024 | 2.20 | 2.50 | -0.30 |
| Oct 1, 2024 | 3.20 | 2.60 | +0.60 |
| Sep 2, 2024 | 2.70 | -0.20 | +2.90 |
| Aug 6, 2024 | -2.20 | 0.50 | -2.70 |
| Jul 1, 2024 | 0.40 | 2.50 | -2.10 |
| May 31, 2024 | 2.70 | 0.20 | +2.50 |
| May 2, 2024 | -0.10 | 0.20 | -0.30 |
| Apr 2, 2024 | -0.20 | 0.40 | -0.60 |
| Mar 1, 2024 | 0.30 | -0.20 | +0.50 |
| Jan 31, 2024 | -0.80 | 1.10 | -1.90 |
| Jan 8, 2024 | 0.70 | — | — |
| Nov 30, 2023 | -0.10 | 0.20 | -0.30 |
| Oct 31, 2023 | -0.60 | -1.90 | +1.30 |
| Oct 2, 2023 | -1.80 | — | — |
| Aug 31, 2023 | -2.20 | — | — |
| Jul 28, 2023 | 1.80 | — | — |
| Jun 30, 2023 | -1.10 | -2.50 | +1.40 |
| May 31, 2023 | -3.70 | -1.40 | -2.30 |
| Apr 28, 2023 | -1.90 | — | — |
| Mar 31, 2023 | 0.30 | — | — |
| Mar 1, 2023 | -2.20 | -2.20 | 0.00 |
| Jan 31, 2023 | -2.80 | -0.70 | -2.10 |
| Jan 6, 2023 | -1.30 | — | — |
| Dec 1, 2022 | -2.50 | — | — |
| Oct 31, 2022 | 3.20 | 3.30 | -0.10 |
| Sep 30, 2022 | 3.00 | — | — |
| Sep 1, 2022 | 2.60 | — | — |
| Jul 29, 2022 | 1.20 | — | — |
| Date | First print | Current | Revision |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 31, 2026 | 1.50 | 1.90 | +0.40 ↑ |
| Jul 1, 2026 | 3.50 | 3.40 | -0.10 ↓ |
| Jun 1, 2026 | 1.60 | 1.60 | 0 ↓ |
| May 1, 2026 | 0.50 | 1.30 | +0.80 ↑ |
| Apr 1, 2026 | 0.90 | 0.40 | -0.50 ↓ |
