Consumer Confidence

Switzerland's Consumer Confidence, officially Consumer Sentiment, is the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO) monthly household mood index, run with a specialist survey institute. It has run since 1972 and follows a method broadly compatible with European Union member indices. It covers stratified samples of private households aged 16 and over answering online in German, French or Italian, drawn with Federal Statistical Office sampling. It records opinions and buying willingness, not actual retail sales, business, investor or labour-market mood.

Responses are collected continuously through independent weekly random samples invited by letter to answer online. Results appear monthly on SECO's consumer confidence page in the morning Bern time within about 10 days after the surveyed month. Each release gives a sub-index for all 14 survey questions plus charts, tables, the long series from 1972 and two experimental price-expectation questions. Released values are not routinely revised and monthly data are published without seasonal adjustment, so compare with the same month a year earlier.

The headline averages 4 household sub-indices, each an average score for a survey question.

• Economic outlook, next 12 months, 25%: expected general economic performance.
• Past financial situation, last 12 months, 25%: how the household's own finances changed.
• Financial outlook, next 12 months, 25%: expected household finances.
• Moment to make major purchases, 25%: whether it is a good time for large purchases.

In January 2023 the index rose to -30 from -47 in October 2022, above -38 expected. It was the strongest print since Q2 2022 at -28, yet far below the long-term average of -6. Expectations drove the rebound, with economic outlook up from -57 to -16 and financial outlook up from -47 to -25, while buying mood lagged. October 2022 used the old phone method, so compare trends rather than levels, and read the 17-point jump as hope, not spending.

1. Answer coding: Each answer gets a score from +2 for much better to -2 for much worse, with no change at 0. The buying-moment question uses only +1 for yes, 0 for unsure and -1 for no.
2. Sub-index: A sub-index equals the simple mean of coded answers times 100. Scores run from +200 to -200, or +100 to -100 for the buying-moment question. For example, 1,000 answers averaging -0.15 give a sub-index of -15.
3. Headline: The headline equals the simple average of the 4 sub-indices listed above. For example, (-15 + -55 + -30 + -20) = -120 / 4 = -30, within the possible -175 to +175 range.
4. Regional weighting: Design weights, statistical corrections for sampling, shrink oversampled Ticino to its true population share.
5. History: Past quarterly data were shifted to the online level using 2023 parallel-run mean differences, with old values also kept. Quarterly history uses X-13ARIMA-SEATS seasonal correction, while monthly data stay unadjusted, so compare with the same month a year earlier.