Exports MoM

Exports MoM is the monthly change in Australia's goods credits, or export values in current prices. The Australian Bureau of Statistics publishes it monthly in International Trade in Goods, seasonally adjusted. It covers all goods in export customs declarations lodged with Home Affairs under the Census and Statistics Act 1905, with no survey panel. Raw customs totals are converted to a balance of payments basis at ownership change.

Goods are valued FOB under a general trade system covering domestic goods and re-exports. The series runs monthly since July 1971. Monthly services ended with the September 2023 reference month and continue quarterly. The headline is current prices only, not merchandise detail.

Each reference month is collected from customs export declarations, with iron ore and coal prices updated as exporters revise filings. Ownership is usually recorded at border crossing, large capital items at actual ownership timing. It appears in the first week after the next month, around 4 to 6 weeks after month end, at 11:30am Canberra time. The November reference month slips to January, method changes are pre-announced, and trend carries a caution.

Each issue publishes the goods balance and imports by consumption, capital and intermediate use. It publishes rural and non-rural detail, quantities and unit values for selected commodities, country and state splits, and a revisions table. Merchandise data are revised each month for the previous 6 months. BoP revisions stay narrow in the July, October, January and April issues, while the August issue can reach back four financial years.

The total adds dollar values with no fixed weights, so large groups move it most. There is no threshold or target line on the exports series.

• General merchandise: the bulk of exports.

• Rural goods: farm exports such as meat, cereals, wool and other rural goods.

• Non-rural goods: mine and factory exports such as ores, coal, fuels, metals, machinery, transport equipment and other manufactures.

• Net exports of goods under merchanting: margin on goods resold abroad without entering Australia, a small line in the tens of millions.

• Non-monetary gold: bullion trade excluding monetary gold, large and volatile, and like merchanting it is not seasonally adjusted.

In the September 2024 reference month, released 7 November 2024, goods credits fell from $42,645m in August 2024 to $40,827m. That is minus $1,818m, or minus 4.3%, driven by Other mineral fuels. Rural goods rose $290m, or 5.4%, to $5,658m, led by Other rural, up $194m, or 8.1%. Meat and meat preparations gained $192m, or 11.5%.

Non-rural goods fell $1,450m, or 4.2%, to $32,720m, with fuels down $735m, or 11.5%, and coal down $715m, or 9.3%. Metal ores and minerals lost $371m, or 2.8%, while non-monetary gold lost $657m, or 21.2%, to $2,438m. A falling headline can hide a rising rural component, so read the split and watch gold swings.

1. Customs base: Start from export declarations lodged with Home Affairs, converting foreign currency values to Australian dollars.

1. Balance of payments conversion: Adjust coverage, timing and valuation to record ownership change, not border crossing, with exports valued FOB.

1. Commodity updates: Update iron ore at classification level and coal on a BoP basis as final prices arrive, replacing estimates with final data.

1. Seasonal and trend adjustment: Remove calendar effects with concurrent adjustment and ARIMA modelling, re-estimating factors each month, then smooth with a 13 term Henderson average. Merchandise-basis series are not adjusted, irregular influences stay in, and trend revises over the latest 6 months.

1. Month on month change: Subtract the previous month value from the reference month, then divide by the previous month and multiply by 100. For example, $42,645m to $40,827m is minus $1,818m, or minus 4.3%, using $m precision figures. Rounded parts may not sum to totals, credits carry a positive sign, and no per-cent applies when a balance flips.