Balance of Trade

Balance of Trade for Australia is the monthly Balance on goods (goods exports minus goods imports) from International Trade in Goods (catalogue 5368.0). The publisher is the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS, Australia national statistics agency) using Home Affairs customs records under the Census and Statistics Act 1905. Coverage is Australia economic territory (geographic Australia plus listed islands and overseas enclaves) with monthly goods data back to July 1971. Since September 2023 the monthly publication covers goods only and the goods balance alone is not the current account (broad external balance).

Goods data are collected monthly from customs declarations (administrative records, no survey sample) as preliminary estimates (first calculations subject to revision). Releases fall in the first week after the next calendar month, about 4 to 6 weeks after the reference month ends, at 11:30am Canberra time. Each release shows goods credits (exports) and debits (imports) plus merchandise detail (customs basis records) with monthly revisions for 6 months. A surplus means credits exceed debits and a deficit means the reverse with no publisher trading view and no % change on a flip.

Moves come from separate export (credit) and import (debit) commodity drivers with the balance as their net.

• Rural export goods: meat cereal grains wool sheepskins and other rural products.
• Non-rural export goods: metal ores minerals coal coke briquettes metals machinery transport equipment and other manufactures.
• Special export items: goods procured in ports (carrier supplies) merchanting (trade without entering Australia) and non-monetary gold (commodity gold).
• Fuel and transport imports: fuels and lubricants plus non-industrial and industrial transport equipment (vehicles and parts not elsewhere specified).
• Technology and consumption imports: ADP equipment (computers and related gear) and consumption goods (household use products).
• Intermediate and gold imports: intermediate and other merchandise goods (inputs for further production) and non-monetary gold (commodity gold).

May 2022 (released July 7, 2022) showed a seasonally adjusted surplus of 15965 ($m) up 2717 on the April 2022 surplus of 13248. Goods and services credits (exports) rose 5054 (9.5%) to 58402 led by coal coke and briquettes and other mineral fuels. Goods and services debits (imports) rose 2337 (5.8%) to 42437 led by fuels and lubricants and non-industrial transport equipment. The lesson is that a commodity export surge can widen the surplus even as fuel and equipment imports rise since the balance is their net.

1. Customs compilation: Compile merchandise exports and imports (customs recorded goods) from declarations lodged with the Department of Home Affairs.
2. Balance of payments conversion: Convert to balance of payments basis (ownership based accounting) with timing coverage and valuation adjustments. Timing records ownership change timing, coverage adds port and merchanting goods, and valuation replaces estimated prices with final values.
3. Sign convention: Show credits (exports) as positive and debits (imports) as negative under BPM6 (global accounting standard) while merchandise tables show both without sign.
4. Balance formula: Balance on goods equals credits plus debits (exports minus imports) in $m with surplus if above 0 and deficit if below 0. In symbols B = C minus D.
5. Seasonal adjustment and trend: Remove calendar effects with ARIMA modelling (statistical forecasting method) and smooth with a 13 term Henderson average (weighted trend filter). Merchandise statistics are not seasonally adjusted.
6. Illustrative example: If credits are 60000 ($m) and debits are 42000 stored as minus 42000 then the balance is plus 18000 (surplus). If credits fall to 58000 and debits rise to 59000 then the balance is minus 1000 (deficit) with no % change on the flip.