NAB Business Confidence is the outlook part of the NAB Monthly Business Survey, published by National Australia Bank through NAB Group Economics. The monthly survey started in March 1997, with a deeper quarterly survey since Q3 1989. It covers firms in Australia's non-farm business sector, across states and industries. Confidence captures firms' near-term expectations and conditions captures present strength. It measures neither ABS statistics nor consumer sentiment nor GDP.
Fieldwork runs in the last 2 weeks of each reference month. Release lands usually on the 2nd Tuesday of the next month at 11:30am Sydney time under embargo. There is no December monthly release.
Each release pairs key messages with statistics, charts and state and industry splits. The quarterly edition adds 3 and 12 month expectations and output limits. All data are seasonally adjusted, and monthly moves use unrounded values.
Confidence reacts to the outlook while conditions track sales, profits, hiring and forward signals.
In March 2020 confidence fell to -66 points, its record low. That ran deeper than -30 in the financial crisis and about -20 in the early 1990s recession. Conditions fell to -21 points with profitability weakest at -27.
Forward orders hit a record low and capacity utilisation fell to its lowest level ever. The episode shows confidence collapses first and fastest while conditions follow. NAB read the drop as implying a large GDP fall within 6 months, risking jobs growth and capital spending.
Low confidence does not prove present conditions failed; it signals firms see near-term decline. Conditions once hit a record high even as confidence eased, and readings are set against long-run averages since 1997. The survey is NAB's private panel, not ABS statistics.
| Date | Actual | Forecast | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 11, 2026 | — | -12.00 | — |
| Oct 13, 2026 | -13.00 | -9.00 | -4.00 |
| Sep 8, 2026 | -9.00 | -8.00 | -1.00 |
| Aug 11, 2026 | -6.00 | -6.00 | 0.00 |
| Jul 14, 2026 | -6.00 | -12.00 | +6.00 |
| Jun 9, 2026 | -14.00 | -22.00 | +8.00 |
| May 12, 2026 | -23.00 | -32.00 | +9.00 |
| Apr 14, 2026 | -29.00 | -6.00 | -23.00 |
| Mar 10, 2026 | -1.00 | 3.00 | -4.00 |
| Feb 10, 2026 | 3.00 | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| Jan 27, 2026 | 3.00 | 2.00 | +1.00 |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 1.00 | — | — |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 6.00 | 8.00 | -2.00 |
| Oct 14, 2025 | 7.00 | 9.00 | -2.00 |
| Sep 9, 2025 | 4.00 | 8.00 | -4.00 |
| Aug 12, 2025 | 7.00 | 3.00 | +4.00 |
| Jul 8, 2025 | 5.00 | -5.00 | +10.00 |
| Jun 10, 2025 | 2.00 | -3.00 | +5.00 |
| May 13, 2025 | -1.00 | -5.00 | +4.00 |
| Apr 8, 2025 | -3.00 | -3.00 | 0.00 |
| Mar 11, 2025 | -1.00 | 6.00 | -7.00 |
| Feb 11, 2025 | 4.00 | — | — |
| Jan 28, 2025 | -2.00 | 3.00 | -5.00 |
| Dec 10, 2024 | -3.00 | 4.00 | -7.00 |
| Nov 12, 2024 | 5.00 | 2.00 | +3.00 |
| Oct 8, 2024 | -2.00 | 2.00 | -4.00 |
| Sep 10, 2024 | -4.00 | 3.00 | -7.00 |
| Aug 13, 2024 | 1.00 | 5.00 | -4.00 |
| Jul 9, 2024 | 4.00 | -5.00 | +9.00 |
| Jun 11, 2024 | -3.00 | — | — |
| May 13, 2024 | 1.00 | 2.00 | -1.00 |
| Apr 9, 2024 | 1.00 | -3.00 | +4.00 |
| Feb 13, 2024 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| Jan 23, 2024 | -1.00 | -7.00 | +6.00 |
| Dec 12, 2023 | -9.00 | -1.00 | -8.00 |
| Nov 14, 2023 | -2.00 | -1.00 | -1.00 |
| Oct 10, 2023 | 1.00 | -2.00 | +3.00 |
| Sep 12, 2023 | 2.00 | 1.00 | +1.00 |
| Aug 8, 2023 | 2.00 | -3.00 | +5.00 |
| Jul 11, 2023 | 0.00 | -1.00 | +1.00 |
| Jun 13, 2023 | -4.00 | 2.00 | -6.00 |
| Apr 11, 2023 | -1.00 | -2.00 | +1.00 |
| Mar 14, 2023 | -4.00 | 5.00 | -9.00 |
| Feb 14, 2023 | 6.00 | 1.00 | +5.00 |
| Jan 24, 2023 | -1.00 | 3.00 | -4.00 |
| Dec 13, 2022 | -4.00 | 2.00 | -6.00 |
| Oct 11, 2022 | 5.00 | 8.00 | -3.00 |
| Sep 13, 2022 | 10.00 | 6.00 | +4.00 |
| Aug 9, 2022 | 7.00 | 2.00 | +5.00 |
| Jul 12, 2022 | 1.00 | 5.00 | -4.00 |
| Jun 14, 2022 | 6.00 | 12.00 | -6.00 |
| Date | First print | Current | Revision |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 8, 2026 | -8 | -9 | -1 |
| Jul 14, 2026 | -5 | -6 | -1 |
| May 12, 2026 | -24 | -23 | +1 |
The latest reading is 1.5 standard deviations below the mean.
