The TD-MI Inflation Gauge is a monthly estimate of inflation in Australia, developed by TD Securities and the Melbourne Institute. It is designed to provide a more frequent update on price movements than the official quarterly Consumer Price Index (CPI) released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics. The gauge tracks price changes across a wide basket of goods and services, offering a timely look at inflationary pressures. Policymakers and investors use this data to anticipate potential shifts in the Reserve Bank of Australia's monetary policy.
The gauge is calculated using a monthly survey of price changes for a representative basket of goods and services consumed by Australian households. The methodology mirrors the official CPI calculation but uses more frequent data points to capture month-on-month fluctuations in the cost of living.
| Date | Actual | Forecast | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 31, 2026 | 0.50 | 0.40 | +0.10 |
| Aug 3, 2026 | 1.00 | 0.30 | +0.70 |
| Jul 6, 2026 | -0.40 | -0.10 | -0.30 |
| Jun 1, 2026 | -0.30 | 0.60 | -0.90 |
| May 4, 2026 | 0.60 | 1.10 | -0.50 |
| Apr 7, 2026 | 1.30 | 0.50 | +0.80 |
| Mar 2, 2026 | -0.20 | 0.20 | -0.40 |
| Feb 2, 2026 | 0.20 | — | — |
| Jan 19, 2026 | 1.00 | 0.20 | +0.80 |
| Dec 1, 2025 | 0.30 | 0.20 | +0.10 |
| Nov 3, 2025 | 0.30 | 0.20 | +0.10 |
| Oct 6, 2025 | 0.40 | 0.00 | +0.40 |
| Sep 1, 2025 | -0.30 | 0.20 | -0.50 |
| Aug 4, 2025 | 0.90 | 0.20 | +0.70 |
| Jun 30, 2025 | 0.10 | 0.20 | -0.10 |
| Jun 2, 2025 | -0.40 | 0.50 | -0.90 |
| May 5, 2025 | 0.60 | 0.40 | +0.20 |
| Mar 31, 2025 | 0.70 | 0.30 | +0.40 |
| Mar 3, 2025 | -0.20 | 0.20 | -0.40 |
| Feb 3, 2025 | 0.10 | 0.30 | -0.20 |
| Jan 13, 2025 | 0.60 | 0.20 | +0.40 |
| Dec 2, 2024 | 0.20 | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| Nov 4, 2024 | 0.30 | 0.20 | +0.10 |
| Oct 7, 2024 | 0.10 | 0.30 | -0.20 |
| Sep 2, 2024 | -0.10 | 0.30 | -0.40 |
| Aug 5, 2024 | 0.40 | 0.30 | +0.10 |
| Jul 1, 2024 | 0.30 | 0.30 | 0.00 |
| Jun 3, 2024 | 0.30 | 0.20 | +0.10 |
| May 6, 2024 | 0.10 | 0.30 | -0.20 |
| Apr 2, 2024 | 0.10 | 0.50 | -0.40 |
| Apr 1, 2024 | 0.10 | — | — |
| Mar 4, 2024 | -0.10 | 0.40 | -0.50 |
| Feb 5, 2024 | 0.30 | 0.50 | -0.20 |
| Jan 15, 2024 | 1.00 | 0.20 | +0.80 |
| Dec 4, 2023 | 0.30 | 0.10 | +0.20 |
| Nov 6, 2023 | -0.10 | 0.20 | -0.30 |
| Oct 2, 2023 | 0.00 | 0.40 | -0.40 |
| Sep 4, 2023 | 0.20 | 0.10 | +0.10 |
| Jul 31, 2023 | 0.80 | 0.50 | +0.30 |
| Jul 3, 2023 | 0.10 | 0.20 | -0.10 |
| Jun 5, 2023 | 0.90 | 0.40 | +0.50 |
| May 1, 2023 | 0.20 | -0.30 | +0.50 |
| Apr 3, 2023 | 0.30 | 0.60 | -0.30 |
| Mar 6, 2023 | 0.40 | 0.60 | -0.20 |
| Feb 6, 2023 | 0.90 | 0.30 | +0.60 |
| Jan 16, 2023 | 0.20 | — | — |
| Dec 5, 2022 | 1.00 | 0.30 | +0.70 |
| Oct 31, 2022 | 0.40 | 0.40 | 0.00 |
| Oct 3, 2022 | 0.50 | 0.30 | +0.20 |
| Sep 5, 2022 | -0.50 | 0.70 | -1.20 |
