This indicator measures the median expectation of consumers regarding the inflation rate over the next 12 months. It is based on the Survey of Consumer Expectations conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Policymakers monitor these figures closely as inflation expectations can become self-fulfilling by influencing wage negotiations and spending behavior.
The data is derived from a rotating panel of approximately 1,300 household heads. It calculates the median point estimate of expected inflation over a one-year horizon based on consumer responses.
| Date | Actual | Forecast | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 10, 2026 | — | 5.10 | — |
| Aug 20, 2026 | 4.90 | 4.40 | +0.50 |
| Jul 16, 2026 | 4.70 | 5.50 | -0.80 |
| Jun 11, 2026 | 5.50 | 6.50 | -1.00 |
| May 21, 2026 | 5.60 | 6.30 | -0.70 |
| Apr 16, 2026 | 5.90 | 5.40 | +0.50 |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 5.20 | 4.20 | +1.00 |
| Feb 12, 2026 | 5.00 | 4.40 | +0.60 |
| Jan 15, 2026 | 4.60 | 4.50 | +0.10 |
| Dec 18, 2025 | 4.70 | 3.20 | +1.50 |
| Nov 13, 2025 | 4.50 | 4.50 | 0.00 |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 4.80 | 4.50 | +0.30 |
| Sep 11, 2025 | 4.70 | 3.90 | +0.80 |
| Aug 21, 2025 | 3.90 | 4.40 | -0.50 |
| Jul 17, 2025 | 4.70 | 4.70 | 0.00 |
| Jun 12, 2025 | 5.00 | 4.00 | +1.00 |
| May 15, 2025 | 4.10 | 3.80 | +0.30 |
| Apr 10, 2025 | 4.20 | 3.60 | +0.60 |
| Mar 13, 2025 | 3.60 | 4.40 | -0.80 |
| Feb 13, 2025 | 4.60 | 3.80 | +0.80 |
| Jan 16, 2025 | 4.00 | — | — |
| Dec 19, 2024 | 4.20 | 3.50 | +0.70 |
| Nov 14, 2024 | 3.80 | 3.80 | 0.00 |
| Oct 10, 2024 | 4.00 | 4.30 | -0.30 |
| Sep 12, 2024 | 4.40 | 4.10 | +0.30 |
| Aug 15, 2024 | 4.50 | 4.20 | +0.30 |
| Jul 11, 2024 | 4.30 | 4.50 | -0.20 |
| Jun 27, 2024 | 4.40 | 4.30 | +0.10 |
| May 23, 2024 | 4.10 | 4.50 | -0.40 |
| Apr 11, 2024 | 4.60 | 4.10 | +0.50 |
| Mar 28, 2024 | 4.30 | 4.40 | -0.10 |
| Feb 15, 2024 | 4.50 | 4.30 | +0.20 |
| Jan 18, 2024 | 4.50 | 4.20 | +0.30 |
| Dec 14, 2023 | 4.50 | 4.50 | 0.00 |
| Nov 16, 2023 | 4.90 | 4.10 | +0.80 |
| Oct 12, 2023 | 4.80 | 4.40 | +0.40 |
| Sep 14, 2023 | 4.60 | 4.70 | -0.10 |
| Aug 10, 2023 | 4.90 | — | — |
| Jul 13, 2023 | 5.20 | 5.10 | +0.10 |
| Jun 15, 2023 | 5.20 | 4.80 | +0.40 |
| May 11, 2023 | 5.00 | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| Apr 13, 2023 | 4.60 | 4.80 | -0.20 |
| Mar 16, 2023 | 5.00 | 4.90 | +0.10 |
| Feb 16, 2023 | 5.10 | 5.70 | -0.60 |
| Jan 19, 2023 | 5.60 | 4.90 | +0.70 |
| Dec 15, 2022 | 5.20 | 6.20 | -1.00 |
| Nov 10, 2022 | 6.00 | 5.10 | +0.90 |
| Oct 13, 2022 | 5.40 | 5.20 | +0.20 |
| Sep 15, 2022 | 5.40 | 5.80 | -0.40 |
| Aug 11, 2022 | 5.90 | 6.20 | -0.30 |
| Jul 14, 2022 | 6.30 | 6.80 | -0.50 |
