Net Exports Contribution to GDP

Net Exports Contribution to GDP measures how foreign trade added to or subtracted from Australian quarterly GDP growth. It is published by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) in the quarterly Australian National Accounts. It appears under the label Net trade (ppt), split into exports and imports contributions, where ppt means percentage points.

The accounts follow the System of National Accounts 2008 (2008 SNA). It is not the current-price trade balance, not a nominal share, and not a state measure. It excludes price effects, which appear in the terms of trade.

Each release covers one calendar quarter, March, June, September or December, compiled after quarter end from partial indicators. It appears on the first Wednesday of March, June, September and December. That is 9 to 12 weeks after quarter end, at 11:30am Canberra time in AEDT or AEST.

Each release includes volume and current-price GDP, spending and industry detail, income and capital accounts, state demand, productivity, terms of trade and the saving ratio. It comes with analysis and commentary plus contribution tables and time-series spreadsheets. Figures are revised as better data arrive for recent quarters and through annual redistribution with revision tables. The trend for the latest three quarters is re-estimated.

There are no fixed weights. Net trade moves with export and import volumes in chain-volume terms, with imports subtracting.

• Exports of goods: They cover items such as cereals, meat, wool, mineral ores, fuels, metals, machinery, transport gear, non-monetary gold, merchanting and port goods.
• Exports of services: They cover travel including education visitors, transport, other services and maintenance and repair.
• Imports of goods: They cover machinery, industrial supplies, consumption goods, fuels, computing and telecom gear, aircraft and confidential items.
• Imports of services: They cover travel by Australians abroad, transport and other services.

In March quarter 2024, released June 5, 2024, GDP rose 0.1% while net trade subtracted 0.9 points. Exports added 0.2 points and imports subtracted 1.1 points, while inventory change added 0.7 points.

Import volumes rose 5.1% after a 3.5% fall, led by consumption goods such as medicines, clothing and footwear. Services imports fell as travel shifted toward closer affordable places including Japan. Export volumes rose 0.7%, led by liquefied natural gas on low prices. Services fell 1.1% on fewer student arrivals, so net trade cut growth despite higher exports.

1. Expenditure GDP: GDP by spending equals final spending plus inventory change plus exports minus imports. Headline GDP averages the income, spending and production measures.
2. Seasonal adjustment: Estimates use seasonally adjusted figures at previous-year prices, benchmarked to annual original estimates.
3. Chain volumes: All parts use chain-volume measures, and the reference year moves and is stated in each release.
4. Contribution to growth: Contribution equals 100 times the component volume growth at previous-year prices times its share of previous current-price GDP. For example, previous nominal GDP of 660 billion with 0.67% growth and a 22.7% share gives about 0.15 points. Imports at minus 1.06 points leave net trade at about minus 0.9 points.
5. Net trade: Apply the formula to exports and imports separately, with rising imports entering as a negative, then add the two results.
6. Statistical discrepancy: Quarterly parts need not sum exactly to GDP growth because of a gap between the three GDP measures. Annual parts add up from 1995-96 when that gap is zero.