The Leading Economic Index (LEI) is a composite index designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. It combines several individual economic indicators that typically lead changes in the overall economy, such as building permits, stock prices, and consumer expectations. A rising index suggests economic expansion in the coming months, while a declining trend can signal a potential recession.
The index is calculated as a weighted average of 10 components, including manufacturing hours, jobless claims, new orders, and interest rate spreads, adjusted for volatility.
| Date | Actual | Forecast | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 26, 2026 | 0.00 | — | — |
| Jul 22, 2026 | 0.10 | — | — |
| Jun 17, 2026 | -0.10 | — | — |
| May 27, 2026 | 0.00 | — | — |
| Apr 22, 2026 | -0.10 | — | — |
| Mar 17, 2026 | -0.10 | — | — |
| Feb 17, 2026 | -0.10 | — | — |
| Jan 20, 2026 | 0.10 | — | — |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 0.00 | — | — |
| Nov 18, 2025 | 0.10 | — | — |
| Oct 15, 2025 | 0.00 | — | — |
| Sep 17, 2025 | -0.10 | — | — |
| Aug 27, 2025 | 0.10 | — | — |
| Jul 23, 2025 | 0.00 | — | — |
| Jun 18, 2025 | -0.10 | — | — |
| May 21, 2025 | 0.00 | — | — |
| Apr 16, 2025 | -0.10 | — | — |
| Mar 19, 2025 | 0.10 | — | — |
| Feb 19, 2025 | 0.10 | — | — |
| Nov 20, 2024 | 0.20 | — | — |
| Sep 18, 2024 | -0.10 | — | — |
| Apr 17, 2024 | -0.10 | — | — |
| Mar 26, 2024 | 0.10 | — | — |
| Feb 21, 2024 | -0.10 | — | — |
| Date | First print | Current | Revision |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 22, 2026 | 0 | 0.10 | +0.10 ↑ |
| Jun 17, 2026 | 0 | -0.10 | -0.10 ↓ |
| May 27, 2026 | 0 | 0 | 0 ↓ |
