GDP Growth Rate QoQ

GDP is the total value of goods and services made by Australian residents. The QoQ rate is its percent change from one quarter to the next on chain-volume GDP, which removes inflation. The series is seasonally adjusted and covers the whole economy. The headline series, GDP(A), is a simple average of 3 independent estimates from income, spending and production data. It uses many sources and early partial indicators, with no single survey. Its series starts with the September quarter of 1959. It measures production, not welfare, and is not national income. State detail each quarter is State Final Demand only, with no quarterly state product.

Each release covers 3 consecutive calendar months. It appears on the 1st Wednesday of the 3rd month after the quarter ends, at 11:30am Canberra time. It arrives with about 45 tables on spending, income, industry output and State Final Demand, shown with through-year and nominal change. Most figures can be revised in two ways, and quarters are benchmarked to annual totals. The base year resets each September quarter without changing growth rates. A rise means expansion and a fall means contraction.

Spending parts drive the headline, with household spending normally the largest final-expenditure piece.

• Household final consumption expenditure: spending by resident households on goods and services.
• General government final consumption expenditure: government spending on services and goods for the community.
• Private gross fixed capital formation: business and dwelling investment in new and second-hand fixed assets.
• Public gross fixed capital formation: investment by general government and public corporations.
• Changes in inventories: physical change in business stocks, a volatile piece.
• Net exports, or exports less imports: foreign sales minus foreign purchases, where falling imports add to growth.

The June quarter of 2020, released 2 September 2020, fell 7.0% in seasonally adjusted terms, 6.3% through the year and 7.6% in nominal terms. Household spending subtracted 6.7 ppt, exports subtracted 1.4 ppt, private investment subtracted 1.2 ppt and stocks subtracted 0.6 ppt. Government spending added 0.6 ppt and falling imports added 2.5 ppt, since imports enter with a minus sign. The household saving ratio rose to 19.8% from 6.0% as spending collapsed. Trend estimates were suspended from the June quarter of 2019, using forward seasonal factors for affected series.

1. 3 GDP estimates: compile 3 separate quarterly totals from income, spending and industry output data. Income adds compensation, surplus and mixed income plus taxes less subsidies. Spending adds consumption, investment, stocks and net trade. Output adds industry value plus taxes less subsidies on products.
2. Seasonal adjustment: estimate seasonal and calendar effects for each detailed series, then remove them to give seasonally adjusted results in previous-year average prices.
3. Balancing, chain-linking and benchmarking: partly balance in a supply-use framework, link yearly moves into a long chain and force quarters to sum to annual totals. The reference year moves forward one year with each September quarter release.
4. Headline average: set headline GDP(A) as the simple average of the 3 chain-volume estimates. Current-price GDP reflates that average with the spending-side implicit deflator. Through-year and nominal change appear beside the quarterly rate.
5. QoQ rate: divide the rise from last quarter by last quarter level and multiply by 100, using seasonally adjusted chain-volume GDP(A). For example, 560000 rising to 562240 gives 100 x (562240 - 560000) / 560000 = +0.4%.