Westpac Consumer Confidence Change

The Westpac Consumer Confidence Change tracks the monthly % change in the Westpac-Melbourne Institute Index of Consumer Sentiment. It is published jointly by Westpac Banking Corporation and the Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research at the University of Melbourne. It is based on a private monthly survey running since March 1973 across Australia, not an Australian Bureau of Statistics release. It captures household views and expectations on money, economy and buying time, not actual spending, retail sales or business sentiment.

Answers are collected over about 5 days in the week before publication. Results usually appear on the second Tuesday of the month at 10:30am Sydney and Melbourne time under Strict Embargo. Timing shifts around shocks and holidays, such as the Wednesday release on April 15, 2020. The Tuesday release on May 21, 2024 moved to the third week for the Federal Budget, and January often appears mid month.

Each release includes a Westpac Economics Bulletin with economist commentary, charts and a table for the headline and five parts. The table shows monthly and yearly % changes, long run averages and state and demographic splits.

A matching embargoed media release from the Melbourne Institute carries the same numbers. It adds extra gauges for unemployment, house prices, mortgage rates and time to buy a dwelling. There is no stated revision policy, and each monthly reading appears as final with its monthly and yearly change.

The change reflects the average of five equal parts, plus housing, labour and borrowing signals that shape expectations.

• Family finances vs a year ago: Current household finances compared with 12 months ago.
• Family finances, next 12 months: Expected household finances 12 months ahead.
• Economic conditions, next 12 months: Expected national economy over the next 12 months.
• Economic conditions, next 5 years: Expected national economy over the next 5 years.
• Time to buy a major household item: Views on whether the moment suits a large purchase.

On April 15, 2020 the headline fell 17.7% to 75.6 from 91.9 in March, the largest monthly fall in 47 years. The 12 month outlook fell 31% to 53.7 and buying time fell 31.6% to 76.2, while the 5 year view fell 3.8% to 87.0. Family finances split the same way, with the past year down 14.8% to 70.4 and the year ahead down 6.6% to just under 91. Unemployment expectations rose 8.2% to 158.1, while house price expectations fell 50.8% to 69.7.

1. Survey: Ask 5 core questions to about 1200 randomly chosen adults aged 18 and over across Australia by telephone. OZINFO and DYNATA conduct the interviews.
2. Weighting (adjustment to match population): Weight answers to reflect Australia's population distribution before scoring.
3. Seasonal adjustment (removal of normal seasonal swings): Adjust the headline and the five parts for seasonal effects. Leave time to buy a dwelling, unemployment expectations and house price expectations unadjusted.
4. Headline blend: The headline is the simple equal weight average of the five parts divided by 5.
5. Net balance: Each part equals optimists % minus pessimists % plus 100. Scores run 0 to 200, with 100 as balance.
6. Change: Divide the monthly move by the prior reading and multiply by 100. For example, parts of 85, 105, 85, 95 and 110 average to 96.0, and from 98.5 the change is minus 2.5%.