The Year-over-Year Inflation Rate measures the percentage change in the price of a basket of goods and services compared to the same month in the previous year. It is the primary gauge of purchasing power and is used by central banks to determine monetary policy and interest rate adjustments. High inflation often leads to tighter monetary policy, while low inflation may prompt stimulus measures.
It is calculated by comparing the current Consumer Price Index (CPI) to the CPI value from one year ago. The formula used is ((Current CPI - Past CPI) / Past CPI) x 100.
| Date | Actual | Forecast | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2, 2026 | — | 3.30 | — |
| Sep 1, 2026 | 3.20 | 2.90 | +0.30 |
| Aug 19, 2026 | 2.80 | 2.70 | +0.10 |
| Jul 31, 2026 | 2.70 | 3.20 | -0.50 |
| Jul 17, 2026 | 3.20 | 3.20 | 0.00 |
| Jul 1, 2026 | 3.20 | 3.60 | -0.40 |
| Jun 17, 2026 | 3.70 | 3.70 | 0.00 |
| Jun 2, 2026 | 3.70 | 3.70 | 0.00 |
| May 20, 2026 | 3.40 | 3.30 | +0.10 |
| Apr 30, 2026 | 3.30 | 3.60 | -0.30 |
| Apr 16, 2026 | 3.20 | 3.10 | +0.10 |
| Mar 31, 2026 | 3.10 | 2.90 | +0.20 |
| Mar 18, 2026 | 2.20 | 2.20 | 0.00 |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 2.20 | 1.70 | +0.50 |
| Feb 25, 2026 | 2.00 | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| Feb 4, 2026 | 2.00 | 3.10 | -1.10 |
| Jan 19, 2026 | 3.80 | 3.80 | 0.00 |
| Jan 7, 2026 | 3.80 | 3.80 | 0.00 |
| Dec 17, 2025 | 4.00 | 4.10 | -0.10 |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 4.10 | 4.00 | +0.10 |
| Nov 19, 2025 | 4.00 | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| Oct 31, 2025 | 4.00 | 3.80 | +0.20 |
| Oct 17, 2025 | 4.00 | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| Oct 1, 2025 | 4.00 | 4.30 | -0.30 |
| Sep 17, 2025 | 4.10 | 4.10 | 0.00 |
| Sep 2, 2025 | 4.10 | 3.60 | +0.50 |
| Aug 20, 2025 | 3.60 | 3.50 | +0.10 |
| Aug 1, 2025 | 3.50 | 3.20 | +0.30 |
| Jul 17, 2025 | 3.30 | 3.30 | 0.00 |
| Jul 1, 2025 | 3.30 | 2.80 | +0.50 |
| Jun 18, 2025 | 3.00 | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| Jun 3, 2025 | 3.00 | 3.20 | -0.20 |
| May 19, 2025 | 3.10 | 3.10 | 0.00 |
| May 2, 2025 | 3.10 | 2.80 | +0.30 |
| Apr 16, 2025 | 2.90 | 2.90 | 0.00 |
| Apr 1, 2025 | 2.90 | 3.10 | -0.20 |
| Mar 19, 2025 | 3.20 | 3.30 | -0.10 |
| Mar 3, 2025 | 3.30 | 3.30 | 0.00 |
| Feb 24, 2025 | 3.20 | 3.30 | -0.10 |
| Feb 3, 2025 | 3.30 | 1.90 | +1.40 |
| Jan 15, 2025 | 2.00 | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| Dec 18, 2024 | 1.90 | 1.90 | 0.00 |
| Nov 29, 2024 | 1.90 | 2.00 | -0.10 |
| Nov 19, 2024 | 1.80 | 1.80 | 0.00 |
| Oct 31, 2024 | 1.80 | 1.90 | -0.10 |
| Oct 17, 2024 | 1.81 | 1.80 | +0.01 |
| Oct 1, 2024 | 1.80 | 2.10 | -0.30 |
| Sep 19, 2024 | 2.30 | 2.40 | -0.10 |
| Aug 30, 2024 | 2.40 | 2.50 | -0.10 |
| Aug 20, 2024 | 2.90 | 2.90 | 0.00 |
| Jul 31, 2024 | 2.90 | 3.90 | -1.00 |
