The Harmonised Inflation Rate Year-over-Year (YoY) represents the annual percentage change in the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices. This metric is specifically designed to provide a comparable measure of inflation across different European countries, stripping out national idiosyncrasies in data collection. It is the benchmark used by the ECB to define its price stability mandate of 2%.
The rate is derived from the HICP, which follows a strict set of legal requirements and statistical standards defined by EU regulations to ensure cross-border comparability.
| Date | Actual | Forecast | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 1, 2026 | 2.90 | 2.70 | +0.20 |
| Aug 19, 2026 | 2.70 | 2.60 | +0.10 |
| Jul 31, 2026 | 2.60 | 3.40 | -0.80 |
| Jul 17, 2026 | 3.20 | 3.10 | +0.10 |
| Jul 1, 2026 | 3.10 | 3.70 | -0.60 |
| Jun 17, 2026 | 3.70 | 3.70 | 0.00 |
| Jun 2, 2026 | 3.70 | 3.70 | 0.00 |
| May 20, 2026 | 3.40 | 3.30 | +0.10 |
| Apr 30, 2026 | 3.30 | 3.50 | -0.20 |
| Apr 16, 2026 | 3.10 | 3.10 | 0.00 |
| Mar 31, 2026 | 3.10 | 3.00 | +0.10 |
| Mar 18, 2026 | 2.30 | 2.30 | 0.00 |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 2.30 | 1.80 | +0.50 |
| Feb 25, 2026 | 2.00 | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| Feb 4, 2026 | 2.00 | 3.10 | -1.10 |
| Jan 19, 2026 | 3.80 | 3.90 | -0.10 |
| Jan 7, 2026 | 3.90 | 3.70 | +0.20 |
| Dec 17, 2025 | 4.00 | 4.10 | -0.10 |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 4.10 | 3.80 | +0.30 |
| Nov 19, 2025 | 4.00 | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| Oct 31, 2025 | 4.00 | 3.70 | +0.30 |
| Oct 17, 2025 | 3.90 | 3.90 | 0.00 |
| Oct 1, 2025 | 3.90 | 4.20 | -0.30 |
| Sep 17, 2025 | 4.10 | 4.10 | 0.00 |
| Sep 2, 2025 | 4.10 | 3.70 | +0.40 |
| Aug 20, 2025 | 3.70 | 3.60 | +0.10 |
| Aug 1, 2025 | 3.60 | 3.30 | +0.30 |
| Jul 17, 2025 | 3.20 | 3.20 | 0.00 |
| Jul 1, 2025 | 3.20 | 2.90 | +0.30 |
| Jun 18, 2025 | 3.00 | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| Jun 3, 2025 | 3.00 | 3.40 | -0.40 |
| May 19, 2025 | 3.30 | 3.30 | 0.00 |
| May 2, 2025 | 3.30 | 2.90 | +0.40 |
| Apr 16, 2025 | 3.10 | 3.10 | 0.00 |
| Apr 1, 2025 | 3.10 | 3.30 | -0.20 |
| Mar 19, 2025 | 3.40 | 3.50 | -0.10 |
| Mar 3, 2025 | 3.50 | 3.50 | 0.00 |
| Feb 24, 2025 | 3.40 | 3.50 | -0.10 |
| Feb 3, 2025 | 3.50 | 2.10 | +1.40 |
| Jan 15, 2025 | 2.10 | 2.10 | 0.00 |
| Dec 18, 2024 | 1.90 | 2.00 | -0.10 |
| Nov 29, 2024 | 2.00 | 1.90 | +0.10 |
| Nov 19, 2024 | 1.80 | 1.80 | 0.00 |
| Oct 31, 2024 | 1.80 | 2.00 | -0.20 |
| Oct 17, 2024 | 1.80 | 1.80 | 0.00 |
| Oct 1, 2024 | 1.80 | 3.70 | -1.90 |
| Sep 19, 2024 | 2.40 | 2.50 | -0.10 |
| Aug 30, 2024 | 2.50 | 2.50 | 0.00 |
| Aug 20, 2024 | 2.90 | 2.90 | 0.00 |
| Jul 31, 2024 | 2.90 | 3.80 | -0.90 |
