The Leading Economic Index (LEI) is a composite index designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. It combines several economic components that tend to change direction before the overall economy does, such as building permits and manufacturing orders. Analysts use this month-over-month change to gauge the likelihood of a recession or an economic expansion in the coming six to nine months.
The index is a weighted average of 10 economic components, including average weekly hours in manufacturing, jobless claims, and the interest rate spread. Each component is seasonally adjusted and smoothed to reduce volatility.
| Date | Actual | Forecast | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | -0.72 | 0.10 | -0.82 |
| Jul 22, 2026 | -0.09 | 0.20 | -0.29 |
| Jun 18, 2026 | 0.08 | -0.80 | +0.88 |
| May 21, 2026 | -1.77 | 0.50 | -2.27 |
| Apr 22, 2026 | 0.83 | -1.10 | +1.93 |
| Mar 20, 2026 | 1.17 | 0.30 | +0.87 |
| Feb 19, 2026 | -0.58 | 1.80 | -2.38 |
| Jan 21, 2026 | 1.24 | 2.50 | -1.26 |
| Dec 17, 2025 | -3.58 | 1.80 | -5.38 |
| Nov 19, 2025 | 5.97 | -0.20 | +6.17 |
| Oct 22, 2025 | -0.85 | -0.40 | -0.45 |
| Sep 17, 2025 | -4.72 | 0.40 | -5.12 |
| Aug 20, 2025 | 0.11 | 0.30 | -0.19 |
| Jul 23, 2025 | -1.60 | 0.40 | -2.00 |
| Jun 18, 2025 | 0.32 | 0.40 | -0.08 |
| May 21, 2025 | 0.52 | 2.00 | -1.48 |
| Apr 17, 2025 | 2.10 | 1.60 | +0.50 |
| Mar 20, 2025 | 2.31 | 0.80 | +1.51 |
| Feb 19, 2025 | 1.12 | 1.50 | -0.38 |
| Jan 22, 2025 | 2.45 | -0.50 | +2.95 |
| Dec 18, 2024 | 1.44 | 0.85 | +0.59 |
| Nov 20, 2024 | 0.76 | 0.90 | -0.14 |
| Oct 16, 2024 | 0.64 | 1.00 | -0.36 |
| Sep 20, 2024 | -0.26 | 3.00 | -3.26 |
| Aug 23, 2024 | 1.50 | -5.00 | +6.50 |
| Jul 19, 2024 | -4.12 | -1.60 | -2.52 |
| Jun 24, 2024 | 4.90 | 3.05 | +1.85 |
| May 22, 2024 | 2.81 | 1.20 | +1.61 |
| Apr 19, 2024 | 0.92 | -4.50 | +5.42 |
| Mar 22, 2024 | -4.81 | -2.10 | -2.71 |
| Feb 23, 2024 | -2.74 | -4.75 | +2.01 |
| Jan 19, 2024 | -6.79 | -3.50 | -3.29 |
| Dec 20, 2023 | -0.32 | -2.00 | +1.68 |
| Nov 22, 2023 | -2.35 | 0.40 | -2.75 |
| Oct 18, 2023 | -2.79 | 0.40 | -3.19 |
| Sep 20, 2023 | 0.87 | -1.40 | +2.27 |
| Aug 23, 2023 | -1.07 | -0.80 | -0.27 |
| Jul 19, 2023 | 1.32 | 0.30 | +1.02 |
| Jun 23, 2023 | -0.48 | -0.10 | -0.38 |
| May 17, 2023 | -0.28 | -0.30 | +0.02 |
| Apr 19, 2023 | 0.12 | -0.50 | +0.62 |
| Mar 23, 2023 | 0.02 | -0.20 | +0.22 |
| Feb 24, 2023 | 2.78 | 0.10 | +2.68 |
| Jan 20, 2023 | 0.10 | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| Dec 22, 2022 | 0.53 | -0.70 | +1.23 |
| Nov 24, 2022 | -1.00 | -0.90 | -0.10 |
| Oct 20, 2022 | -0.83 | -1.30 | +0.47 |
| May 19, 2022 | 1.17 | -0.80 | +1.97 |
| Feb 23, 2022 | -0.92 | -1.10 | +0.18 |
| Jan 26, 2022 | 0.12 | -0.20 | +0.32 |
