The Year-over-Year Economic Activity indicator measures the change in the total output of an economy compared to the same month in the previous year. This metric helps filter out seasonal noise and provides a clearer picture of long-term economic trends and structural growth. It is widely used by analysts to determine if an economy is in an expansionary or recessionary phase relative to its historical performance.
It is calculated by comparing the current month's economic activity index value to the index value of the same month from the prior year, expressed as a percentage change.
| Date | Actual | Forecast | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | 2.70 | 1.90 | +0.80 |
| Jul 22, 2026 | 0.20 | 2.30 | -2.10 |
| Jun 29, 2026 | 1.60 | 2.20 | -0.60 |
| May 21, 2026 | 6.20 | 2.10 | +4.10 |
| Apr 22, 2026 | -2.10 | 0.40 | -2.50 |
| Mar 26, 2026 | 1.90 | 1.60 | +0.30 |
| Feb 24, 2026 | 3.50 | 0.50 | +3.00 |
| Jan 21, 2026 | -0.30 | 2.80 | -3.10 |
| Dec 22, 2025 | 3.20 | 3.30 | -0.10 |
| Nov 25, 2025 | 5.00 | 2.10 | +2.90 |
| Oct 22, 2025 | 2.40 | 2.50 | -0.10 |
| Sep 24, 2025 | 2.90 | 3.30 | -0.40 |
| Aug 20, 2025 | 6.40 | 6.40 | 0.00 |
| Jul 21, 2025 | 5.00 | 5.80 | -0.80 |
| Jun 30, 2025 | 7.70 | 6.60 | +1.10 |
| May 21, 2025 | 5.60 | 6.40 | -0.80 |
| Apr 22, 2025 | 5.70 | 6.00 | -0.30 |
| Mar 27, 2025 | 6.50 | 4.70 | +1.80 |
| Feb 25, 2025 | 5.50 | 3.50 | +2.00 |
| Jan 23, 2025 | 0.10 | -0.60 | +0.70 |
| Dec 20, 2024 | -0.70 | -2.20 | +1.50 |
| Nov 22, 2024 | -3.30 | -2.70 | -0.60 |
| Oct 23, 2024 | -3.80 | -4.90 | +1.10 |
| Sep 25, 2024 | -1.30 | -4.10 | +2.80 |
| Aug 21, 2024 | -3.90 | -1.90 | -2.00 |
| Jul 18, 2024 | 2.30 | -2.40 | +4.70 |
| Jun 28, 2024 | -1.70 | -4.00 | +2.30 |
| May 22, 2024 | -8.40 | -6.90 | -1.50 |
| Apr 23, 2024 | -3.20 | -5.90 | +2.70 |
| Mar 26, 2024 | -4.30 | -5.70 | +1.40 |
| Feb 22, 2024 | -4.50 | -2.30 | -2.20 |
| Jan 23, 2024 | -0.90 | -0.80 | -0.10 |
| Dec 21, 2023 | 0.60 | -0.70 | +1.30 |
| Nov 22, 2023 | -0.70 | -0.50 | -0.20 |
| Oct 24, 2023 | 0.30 | -2.50 | +2.80 |
| Sep 26, 2023 | -1.30 | -3.50 | +2.20 |
| Aug 23, 2023 | -4.40 | -5.70 | +1.30 |
| Jul 18, 2023 | -5.50 | -2.80 | -2.70 |
| May 23, 2023 | 1.30 | -0.70 | +2.00 |
| Apr 24, 2023 | 0.20 | 0.70 | -0.50 |
| Mar 29, 2023 | 2.90 | 0.50 | +2.40 |
| Feb 23, 2023 | -1.20 | 0.80 | -2.00 |
| Jan 24, 2023 | 2.60 | 3.90 | -1.30 |
| Dec 21, 2022 | 4.50 | 3.90 | +0.60 |
| Nov 23, 2022 | 4.80 | 3.40 | +1.40 |
| Oct 20, 2022 | 6.40 | 4.50 | +1.90 |
| Sep 26, 2022 | 5.60 | 5.30 | +0.30 |
| Aug 23, 2022 | 6.40 | 8.80 | -2.40 |
| Jul 20, 2022 | 7.40 | 3.80 | +3.60 |
| May 19, 2022 | 4.80 | 3.30 | +1.50 |
| Date | First print | Current | Revision |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 22, 2026 | 0.20 | 0.20 | 0 ↓ |
| May 21, 2026 | 5.50 | 6.20 | +0.70 ↑ |
