Measures the change in the total value of inflation-adjusted sales at the retail level compared to the same month in the previous year. It is a primary indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity. High readings suggest a robust economy and increased consumer confidence, often leading to inflationary pressure.
Calculated by surveying a broad sample of retail firms of various sizes and types across the country. The data is then weighted to represent the entire retail sector and adjusted for seasonal variations to ensure accuracy.
| Date | Actual | Forecast | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | 13.40 | 17.00 | -3.60 |
| Jul 23, 2026 | 33.10 | 8.00 | +25.10 |
| Jun 19, 2026 | 12.70 | 1.00 | +11.70 |
| May 22, 2026 | 3.60 | 22.00 | -18.40 |
| Apr 23, 2026 | 18.00 | 18.00 | 0.00 |
| Mar 20, 2026 | 20.70 | 5.00 | +15.70 |
| Feb 25, 2026 | 16.10 | 16.00 | +0.10 |
| Jan 22, 2026 | 17.30 | 11.00 | +6.30 |
| Dec 26, 2025 | 15.10 | 17.00 | -1.90 |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 18.90 | 20.00 | -1.10 |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 25.10 | 15.00 | +10.10 |
| Sep 23, 2025 | 19.60 | 25.00 | -5.40 |
| Aug 21, 2025 | 27.80 | 35.00 | -7.20 |
| Jul 23, 2025 | 45.10 | 50.00 | -4.90 |
| Jun 18, 2025 | 66.90 | 70.00 | -3.10 |
| May 22, 2025 | 86.70 | 60.00 | +26.70 |
| Apr 23, 2025 | 80.70 | 103.40 | -22.70 |
| Mar 21, 2025 | 108.20 | 110.00 | -1.80 |
| Feb 26, 2025 | 121.50 | 110.00 | +11.50 |
| Jan 22, 2025 | 134.80 | 115.00 | +19.80 |
| Dec 26, 2024 | 127.10 | 150.00 | -22.90 |
| Nov 26, 2024 | 161.00 | 190.00 | -29.00 |
| Oct 24, 2024 | 204.40 | 170.00 | +34.40 |
| Sep 25, 2024 | 186.70 | 200.00 | -13.30 |
| Aug 22, 2024 | 220.50 | 185.00 | +35.50 |
| Jul 24, 2024 | 186.80 | 150.00 | +36.80 |
| Jun 18, 2024 | 161.00 | 220.00 | -59.00 |
| May 23, 2024 | 208.80 | 200.00 | +8.80 |
| Apr 24, 2024 | 181.20 | 160.00 | +21.20 |
| Mar 21, 2024 | 165.30 | 210.00 | -44.70 |
| Feb 27, 2024 | 197.00 | 171.00 | +26.00 |
| Jan 24, 2024 | 168.40 | 198.00 | -29.60 |
| Dec 27, 2023 | 195.50 | 186.00 | +9.50 |
| Nov 23, 2023 | 182.10 | 144.00 | +38.10 |
| Oct 25, 2023 | 138.30 | 141.00 | -2.70 |
| Sep 26, 2023 | 137.90 | 154.00 | -16.10 |
| Aug 24, 2023 | 149.50 | 163.00 | -13.50 |
| Jul 25, 2023 | 148.80 | 155.00 | -6.20 |
| Jun 23, 2023 | 147.80 | 93.00 | +54.80 |
| May 24, 2023 | 126.10 | 119.40 | +6.70 |
| Apr 25, 2023 | 132.80 | 143.00 | -10.20 |
| Mar 23, 2023 | 151.20 | 146.00 | +5.20 |
| Feb 27, 2023 | 113.70 | 125.00 | -11.30 |
| Jan 25, 2023 | 120.30 | 130.00 | -9.70 |
| Dec 27, 2022 | 120.00 | 68.00 | +52.00 |
| Nov 24, 2022 | 126.20 | 95.00 | +31.20 |
| Oct 25, 2022 | 123.30 | 89.00 | +34.30 |
| Sep 27, 2022 | 167.60 | 88.00 | +79.60 |
| Aug 24, 2022 | 266.90 | 239.00 | +27.90 |
| Jul 26, 2022 | 552.10 | 733.00 | -180.90 |
| Date | First print | Current | Revision |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 23, 2026 | 33.1 | 33.1 | 0 ↓ |
| Jun 19, 2026 | 12.6 | 12.7 | +0.10 ↑ |
| May 22, 2026 | -13.3 | 3.60 | +16.9 ↑ |
| Apr 23, 2026 | 23.5 | 18 | -5.50 ↓ |
