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In a move reflecting the ability of Chinese smelters to fill global supply gaps, China’s aluminium exports jumped 16% year-on-year to 630,000 tonnes in May. According to reports, Chinese producers capitalized on elevated international prices and supply disruptions stemming from regional conflicts in the Middle East. Meanwhile, copper prices held steady as geopolitical tensions between Iran and Israel eased, reducing the risk premium across the base metals complex.
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Sign InThis robust growth in Chinese exports comes as global markets face production pressures, with historical data indicating that May's export volume is among the highest in nearly two years. Compared to regional peers, China's production costs remain competitive despite energy price volatility. Per market data, aluminium prices on the London Metal Exchange (LME) have seen significant fluctuations recently, prompting international buyers to pivot toward Chinese supply to secure commodity flows.
Investors should monitor global industrial demand levels amid economic uncertainty, as Eurozone GDP data (at close 2026-06-05) showed a contraction of -0.2% quarter-on-quarter, which may cap the sustainability of export growth. Looking at the economic calendar, focus will shift to industrial production data from major economies next week to gauge the underlying strength of base metal demand.