The dollar fell 4.456 yen against the yen in two sessions, from 160.167 to 155.711, a move seen in fewer than 1% of windows since 1981. The standard narrative says Japan’s Ministry of Finance returned to the market. We examined the hourly tape, compared its signature with that of the confirmed intervention on 30 July, then opened the positioning book: the move came from Tokyo and London, not New York, without a single hour bearing the signature of intervention, and against a 963 billion yen short bet that had grown week after week ahead of the 18 September meeting.
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