On 1 September 2026, with dollar/yen at 160.167, leveraged money’s net position in yen futures was 102,188 contracts short — the same size the bet reached on 28 July, two days before the largest intervention in Japan’s history. The next day, the yen began to rise and closed on 9 September at 153.505, a 4.16% fall over six sessions seen in only 1.2% of windows since 1981. The book open at that size has not yet reported its next reading; it is due on Friday 11 September. We examined twenty years of positioning data, measured every instance when a short bet of this size coincided with a sharp rise in the yen, calculated what the six sessions have cost holders so far — and read what the US Treasury Secretary told them on 9 September: “I am the house now”.
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