EL7 Research · Currencies
13 September 2026
Coverage this week reported that speculators turned net long the Japanese yen for the first time since February. That is true — for one of the categories measured by the report, not the category that carries the carry trade. The “non-commercial” category in the legacy report did move from 92,227 net short contracts to 10,796 net long contracts. Leveraged money — the hedge-fund book we tracked at 102,188 short contracts three days ago — stands at 49,098 net short contracts, and has not recorded a single week on the long side since 8 July 2025. This article breaks the report down by category, measures the scale of the covering against a twenty- year record, and examines what that record says about what follows — ahead of the Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan decisions in 48 hours.
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