US equities fell for three consecutive sessions, Brent crude exceeded 100 dollars per barrel for the first time since July, and the 10-year Treasury yield reached 4.83%, its highest level since 2023 — while the VIX, which traders call the fear gauge, closed at 16.46. The prevailing view is that the market is complacent about risk. We tested this against our price database and 20 years of position records from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission, producing a different picture: the index prices twice the movement actually realised by the S&P 500, the calm is not limited to equities but extends across all assets including oil itself, and the reason keeping the index subdued is that its largest components are moving in opposite directions more sharply than at any time since 2021.
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