EL7 Research · US Markets

Sunday 1 November 2026 · Prediction market prices as of 17:28 GMT · Closing prices through 30 October

The House is all but decided, while the Senate hinges on Maine and Texas: three midterm election scenarios and their market implications

Americans vote on Tuesday 3 November, and prediction markets favour a Democratic sweep of both chambers. This guide maps their path to the fifty-first Senate seat, with Maine and Texas priced almost equally on Kalshi. It sets out poll closing times in the UAE and Saudi Arabia, and links each scenario to changes in the budget, debt ceiling, Federal Reserve and Iran policy, and the implications for bonds, equities and the dollar.

70%

Probability of a Democratic sweep of both chambers on Kalshi, up from 40% on 1 July

93.6%

Probability of Democrats winning the House on Kalshi

72%

Probability of Democrats winning the Senate on Kalshi

69%

Democratic odds in Maine, matched by Texas for the seat that decides the majority

This part of the paper is open to EL7 Pro members and to free members who use one of this month's free papers on it. The paper goes on to analyse the numbers, the causes and what they mean for investors, with tables, charts and sources.

November

Free papers this month · of 4

Renews 1 December

Keep reading for free

Create a free account and read this paper in full

A free account gives you 4 full research papers every month. Or subscribe to EL7 Pro for full access to more than 300 papers.

Create a free account

$700 per year · or $99 per month

...