The policy rate in neither London nor Washington has moved since last December. But the voting record within the two committees reversed completely in the first seven months of 2026: in February, four Bank of England members called for a cut; by July, three called for a hike — and the rate was unchanged at both meetings. At the same time, the Federal Reserve cut its statement by 61%, removing its forward-guidance paragraph entirely. When a committee stops disclosing the path — whether because it does not agree on it or has decided not to state it — the long end of the yield curve prices the path itself. That is what happened.
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