EL7 Research · Equities

Tuesday 3 November 2026 · Ahead of third-quarter results · Prices as of the 2 November close

Why Uber is falling as bookings grow 22%: what will Wednesday decide?

Uber reports third-quarter results on Wednesday morning, 4 November, with its shares down more than 15% year to date, despite bookings growth above 20% and free cash flow exceeding $10 billion. This research examines four pillars: the business engine, the autonomous vehicle threat, the Delivery Hero deal, and valuation. We then examine the earnings-day move priced by options markets and what will determine the stock’s direction.

−18.4%

Uber’s share performance since the start of 2026, versus +10.9% for QQQ

22%

Second-quarter gross bookings growth in constant currency

7.6%

The move priced by options, up or down, through Friday 6 November expiry

15.0

Forward 2027 price/earnings multiple, versus 39.8 for DoorDash

Executive summary

Uber heads into its third-quarter results on Wednesday morning, 4 November, with its shares at $66.71, returning −18.4% year to date, while Invesco QQQ, which tracks the Nasdaq-100, has risen +10.9%. The shares are 33.4% below their all-time closing high ($100.10 on 6 October 2025). This decline has not stemmed from a business slowdown: Gross Bookings, the value of transactions across the platform, grew 22% in Constant Currency, which excludes the effect of exchange-rate movements, in the second quarter, while Free Cash Flow (FCF), the cash remaining after capital expenditure, exceeded $10 billion over the last 12 months for the first time in the company’s history.

The business is accelerating while the shares retreat. The Adjusted EBITDA margin—adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation as a share of bookings—rose from 4.12% of bookings eight quarters ago to 4.86% in the second quarter, yet the shares trade at about 15.0 times expected 2027 earnings.
Autonomous vehicles explain the market’s valuation discount. They account for no more than 0.5% of Uber rides today, but Waymo will launch its own app in Austin and Atlanta in January 2028, while Tesla is building its fleet in Austin. The market is asking one question: will Uber remain the indispensable intermediary?
The capital allocation strategy has changed. The value of share repurchases (Share Buyback), in which the company buys its own shares in the market, fell from $1.36 billion in the second quarter of 2025 to $518 million in the second quarter of 2026, after about $4 billion was directed into Delivery Hero shares ahead of a $14.8 billion takeover bid.
Options are pricing a larger move than usual. These contracts give holders the right to buy or sell an asset at a specified price within a defined period. Their prices imply a move of about ±7.6% through Friday 6 November expiry, or a range of approximately $61.61 to $71.80. After stripping out normal trading-day volatility, the earnings-specific move is about 7.0%, versus an average realised earnings-day move of 5.50% over the last 11 reports. The shares fell on 8 of those eleven occasions.
The decisive test is Q4 guidance, not Q3 figures. Uber exceeded the upper end of its bookings guidance in the last three quarters. In August, guidance fell short of analysts’ estimates, sending the stock down 5.29% despite strong results reported that day.

Driver
+22%
Q2 constant-currency bookings growth, and free cash flow of 10.12 billion dollars over 12 months
Supports
Threat
Less than 0.5%
Autonomous vehicles’ share of trips today; Waymo exits exclusivity in Austin and Atlanta in 2028
Threatens
Capital
518 million
Q2 share buybacks in dollars, versus about 4 billion allocated to Delivery Hero
Pending
Price
15.0 times
2027 forward P/E, versus 39.8 times for DoorDash
Supports

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