The 10-year US Treasury yield touched 4.818% on 2 September, its highest level since November 2023, while Brent crude exceeded $95. The question the headline does not answer: who sold? We opened every measurable record — futures positions, auction results, foreign holdings, the Fed’s balance sheet, and the Treasury borrowing schedule — and read each on its own clock. The result contradicts the common narrative: hedge funds were not the seller, but were covering; foreigners did not sell long bonds in the latest measured month; and the Fed returned as a buyer. The seller demonstrable in the data is asset managers at the short end, who unwound the largest long position in the history of 2-year futures by about $199bn in five months.
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