On 9 September, the US Treasury published an updated schedule raising the cap on today's buyback in the 10 to 20-year bucket to $6 billion, three times its usual size. In less than two hours, the 10-year Treasury yield rose 6.5 basis points to 4.854%. Then, at 1pm, the Treasury sold $39 billion of the same notes at an auction that drew $105.8 billion in bids, with the lowest primary-dealer share in a year. This research reads the session as an order book: at what level the market refused, at what level it bought, and why $6 billion cannot move the price from the former to the latter.
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