EL7 Research · Industrial Policy
12 September 2026
In one week, across two unrelated sectors, a US tariff plan stalled while three equity deals went ahead. This paper reads the filing documents themselves — not the headlines — to measure what the US government paid in each deal and what it received in return. The measured result is inverted: the largest cheque bought the fewest rights.
Between 8 and 11 September 2026, the US government closed three equity stakes (Equity Stakes) in three companies across two entirely unrelated sectors: quantum computing and critical minerals (Critical Minerals). On the intervening day — 10 September — the White House plan to impose tariffs on copper faltered over cost concerns. One tool stalled; another proceeded.
This paper does not read headlines; it reads filings with the US Securities and Exchange Commission. What those documents reveal is the following, a measurement rather than an interpretation:
The US government obtained a full package of control for 35.6 million dollars, and obtained no governance rights for 8.9 billion.
In Trilogy Metals — a small mining company with a market value of 625.3 million dollars on the signing date — the US Department of War bought for 35.6 million dollars: a board nominee until 6 October 2028, a permanent observer, prior written approval rights over any debt exceeding one billion dollars, written approval rights over the company’s security plan, notice within five business days of any specified foreign investment, and the right to appoint a special representative with veto and tie-breaking power on the Ambler Metals board upon a “restricted entity control event”. The agreement is governed by US federal law and subject to the Southern District of New York’s jurisdiction — for a company incorporated in British Columbia, Canada.
In Intel — for 8.9 billion dollars, or 250 times the amount — the agreement specifies “passive ownership, with no board representation or any governance or information rights”, and the company agreed to vote with its board of directors “subject to limited exceptions”.
The measurement is firm. Its interpretation is not singular. The first reading is that the state buys returns where the asset is financial, and control where the asset is a bottleneck. It is a reasonable reading, but not the only one: cheque size and company size are linked in this sample, and any investor seeks greater protection in a small company. There is a simpler explanation that may be correct, to which we devote a full section: the 10% threshold appears twice in this story, on both sides of it.
The market responded strongly on the announcement day in three of four cases — and Trilogy Metals shares rose 211.0% in one day — but the response did not translate into an outcome: Lithium Americas is down 58% today despite the government appearing on its shareholder register. A state stake is not a free option.
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