SpaceX IPO (SPCX): A Great Company — An Overpriced Offering

EL7 Research · IPO · SpaceX

Analysis of the preliminary S-1 filing and published data. Estimated fair value of ~$85 per share. The offering was priced at $135 (first trading on 12 June on Nasdaq) — slightly below the implied price of ~$140 used in the analysis. The gap to fair value remains ~37%.

Ticker: SPCX — Nasdaq S-1: 20 May 2026 Valuation: $1.75T Raised: ~$75B Recommendation: Do not chase at this price

Update · 8 June 2026

What is new since 24 May? The offering moved from “preliminary” to “priced”

This report was published when the S-1 filing was preliminary. Since then, the offering has been priced and material inputs have changed — but the core thesis (a great company at an inflated price) has not changed; it was reinforced by an independent Morningstar valuation.

Final price$135 / share

Pricing then first trading11 then 12 June

Demand coverage~2× · ~$150B

Pricing confirmed: Fixed price of $135 per share, ~555.6 million shares, proceeds of ~$75B, valuation of ~$1.75–1.8T — the largest IPO in history. Pricing on 11 June and first trading on 12 June on Nasdaq (SPCX).
Independent confirmation of our thesis: Morningstar estimated fair value at $780B — less than half the target — and described the stock as “overvalued in almost all scenarios”.
S&P 500 correction: S&P Dow Jones (4 June) rejected accelerated inclusion — no negative S&P flows at the IPO. The Nasdaq-100 path (~15 trading days) remains intact.
New computing deal: Google will pay $920M/month in addition to the Anthropic contract — total ~$2.17B/month. But Musk said the Anthropic contract is “currently limited to six months”.
Numerical correction: We corrected cash in the financial analysis table: it declined from $24.7B (end-2025) to $15.9B (end-Q1 2026).

Further details in the “Since publication” section below the report.

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This part of the paper is open to EL7 Pro members and to free members who use one of this month's free papers on it. The paper goes on to analyse the numbers, the causes and what they mean for investors, with tables, charts and sources.

This part of the paper is open to EL7 Pro members and to free members who use one of this month's free papers on it. The paper goes on to analyse the numbers, the causes and what they mean for investors, with tables, charts and sources.

This part of the paper is open to EL7 Pro members and to free members who use one of this month's free papers on it. The paper goes on to analyse the numbers, the causes and what they mean for investors, with tables, charts and sources.

This part of the paper is open to EL7 Pro members and to free members who use one of this month's free papers on it. The paper goes on to analyse the numbers, the causes and what they mean for investors, with tables, charts and sources.