Sixty seconds lifted the probability of a rate hike from 59.5% to 79.5%: one line in the inflation report, with two central banks joining next week

The US inflation report was released at 12:30 GMT, matching expectations in almost every line — except one. Within one minute, the market-implied probability (Market-Implied Probability) of a rate hike moved from 59.5% to 79.5%. As of 31 August, four of eight central banks had turned to tightening; next week the number becomes six — and the bank that will not join is the most telling of them.

Implied probability from pre-release to peak

59.5% to 79.5%

Polymarket · from 12:29:14 to 12:31:14

Monthly core inflation

0.3%

versus 0.2% expected

Scoreboard

4 / 8 to 6 / 8

From 31 August to next week

Brent since the Federal Reserve's estimates

+35.3%

From 79.55 to 107.63 dollars

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EL7 Research · Monetary Policy

11 September 2026