Brent up 33.6%, Saudi oil revenue down 23%: where did the barrels go, and what remains for Q4?

Executive summary

On the evening of 2 November, Saudi Arabia’s Ministry of Finance published its Quarterly Budget Performance Report for Q3 2026. The report is the official account of actual government receipts and spending between July and September. One figure sums up the quarter: oil revenue reached 116,495 million riyals, down 23% from 150,816 million riyals in the same quarter of 2025.

This decline came in a quarter when oil prices were higher, not lower. According to EL7’s database, the average closing price of Brent crude, the benchmark used to price most of the world’s oil, was approximately 91.02 dollars per barrel in Q3 2026, compared with 68.13 dollars a year earlier, an increase of 33.6%. What changed was the number of barrels. The Kingdom produced 8,001 thousand barrels per day (kb/d) in September, according to secondary sources, the independent estimates used by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) for its members’ production, compared with 9,960 thousand barrels in September 2025. The ministry itself says average crude supply from January to August was approximately 7.9 million barrels per day, against 9.2 million barrels in the same period of 2025.

For the first time this year, non-oil revenue, the government’s receipts from sources outside the oil sector, exceeded oil revenue in a single quarter, reaching 142,616 million riyals, up 20%. Most of this increase, however, came from a single category, “other revenue”, which rose 68%, while taxes on goods and services increased just 1%.

On the spending side, the government cut expenditure by 4% in the quarter, the first year-on-year decline in 2026. Spending on goods and services and subsidies fell, as did capital expenditure (Capital Expenditure (Capex)), meaning spending on acquiring and developing non-financial assets. One category, however, rose sharply: financing expenses, meaning interest payable on debt, increased by 69%. For every 100 riyals of oil revenue in Q3, interest expenses amounted to approximately 22 riyals, compared with approximately 10 riyals a year earlier.

The annual fiscal picture now looks different from July. The nine-month deficit, meaning expenditure in excess of revenue, reached 244,306 million riyals, or 147.71% of the deficit budgeted for the full year. However, the ministry raised its 2026 deficit estimate to approximately 245 billion riyals in the Pre-Budget Statement, which sets out fiscal estimates ahead of the budget announcement and was released on 30 September. The recorded nine-month deficit thus reached 99.72% of the ministry’s expected full-year deficit. By our calculation, this estimate requires a nearly balanced Q4, with revenue and expenditure each approaching approximately 331 billion riyals. Q4 2025 recorded a deficit of 94,848 million riyals.

Every riyal of this year's deficit was funded by borrowing, with no drawdown of government reserves. Public debt rose from 1,519,007 million riyals at the start of the year to 1,773,607 million riyals at the end of September, an increase of 16.76% in nine months.

Non-oil revenue exceeds oil revenue in Q3

Saudi government oil and non-oil revenue by quarter, in billions of riyals

Values are shown in billions for readability; the report prints figures in millions: 150,816 and 116,495 for oil revenue in Q3 of 2025 and 2026, and 119,059 and 142,616 for non-oil revenue. In Q1 and Q2 of 2026, oil revenue remained higher.

Category	Series	Value
Q3 2025	Oil revenue	150.8
Q3 2025	Non-oil revenue	119.1
Q1 2026	Oil revenue	144.7
Q1 2026	Non-oil revenue	116.3
Second quarter 2026	Oil revenue	185.1
Second quarter 2026	Non-oil revenue	153.7
Third quarter 2026	Oil revenue	116.5
Third quarter 2026	Non-oil revenue	142.6

Source: Saudi Ministry of Finance, Budget Performance Report for the third quarter 2026el7.ai · 03 NOV 2026

Item 1 of 5 · Oil revenue