EL7 Research · Energy
11 October 2026 · Prices as of the 9 October close
A temporary six-month US licence, a pledge of 4.8 million tonnes, and Russian approval for just half a million tonnes. The market priced in the news within minutes, but the refining margin remained above 99% of its historical readings, and US inventories were at their lowest seasonal level since 1982.
On 9 October, the Office of Foreign Assets Control (Office of Foreign Assets Control, OFAC), part of the US Treasury (U.S. Department of the Treasury), issued General License No. 135, a temporary authorisation allowing Russian diesel to be sold, shipped and imported, including into the United States, until 7 April 2027. Sanctions on Russia were not lifted; their effect on a single commodity was suspended for roughly six months. Minutes later, President Trump announced that Russia would supply 4.8 million tonnes of diesel in four tranches, with the final tranche conditional on the state of Russian refineries.
For a single Russian barrel to reach the consumer, four gates must open. Washington opened its gate in a single day. Moscow partially opened its gate on 10 October, allowing exports of only 500 thousand tonnes, roughly a tenth of the announced volume and equivalent to approximately one day's US diesel consumption. The European Union's gate remains closed under a ban in place since 2023, which a US licence does not alter, while the congressional gate remains on hold until after the 3 November elections.
The news affected prices within minutes, but it was not the only factor driving them lower that day. A New York diesel futures contract (Futures)—an agreement to buy or sell a commodity at a later date at an agreed price—fell 4.10% in the 9 October session, yet roughly three-quarters of that decline occurred before the licence and announcement. The refining margin (Refining Margin / Crack Spread), here the difference between the price of a barrel of diesel and a barrel of crude oil, fell by 8.84 dollars per barrel to 91.96 dollars, yet remained above 99.3% of all sessions since 2006. US diesel inventories are the lowest for this week of the year since records began in 1982. Speculative positions—the contracts speculators hold—are in the middle of their historical range. The high price is therefore driven by an actual shortage of the commodity, rather than speculative bets, and the licence has yet to move a single barrel.
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