Russia has nearly doubled the number of carriers serving its sanctioned Arctic project, from 11 vessels at end-December to 20 today. This occurred just as Asia’s spot LNG price reached a four-year high following the halt in Qatari supplies. Yet the project is operating at around 38% of its active capacity. The constraint governing it is neither sanctions nor the buyer — but the number of ships able to carry it.
The number of carriers serving Arctic LNG 2 and its associated facilities rose from 11 at end-December to at least 20 — “nearly doubled”, according to Bloomberg’s analysis of vessel-tracking data published on 1 September 2026. The latest is a Russian-built advanced ice-class carrier, the second of its kind capable of year-round Arctic transit.
But the cap governing the project is imposed by ships, not plants. Rystad Energy estimates the current fleet’s export capacity at between 5.2 and 5.4 million tonnes annually, against 13.2 million tonnes of active capacity across the two operating production trains. With estimated 2026 output of around 5 million tonnes, the facility is operating at around 38% of its active capacity.
This comes in the best pricing window in four years. The East Asia spot LNG benchmark reached 23.388 dollars per million British thermal units on 28 August, up from 10.697 dollars before the war — an increase of around 119%. The reason is that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz removed more than 10 billion cubic feet a day of global supply from the market — around 20% — most of it Qatari.
And one buyer receives everything. China’s Beihai terminal is the sole importer of the project’s cargoes, having received 41 shipments totalling 2.6 million tonnes since it came into service. But China is preparing a second terminal to receive these cargoes — an expansion of demand, not tighter control over it.
Our data show who actually captured the rise. Since Hormuz closed on 28 February, Cheniere shares — owner of liquefaction terminals and long-term contracts — have risen 23.7%, ahead of carrier owners: Flex LNG by around 15.9% and Golar by around 15.8%. Capturing a price spike required pre-existing production capacity, precisely what the Russian project lacks.
The same five gates for every seller. The difference is not the number, but where the bottleneck lies.
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