Our live book prices a September rate increase at 51.5% versus 47.5% for a hold, while a separate $51.6 million market puts the probability that the Federal Reserve will not cut rates at all this year at 92.65% — one increase now, then a pause. Before relying on either price, we tested the book against itself: 224 binary contracts already resolved, priced around 13 minutes before their outcome was determined, recorded a Brier score of 0.060 against 0.250 for a coin toss — making it indistinguishable from a perfectly calibrated forecaster. But that measurement was conducted on high-frequency contracts and does not extend to the Federal Reserve price itself.
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