The US economy added 162 thousand jobs in August, a figure above every published institutional estimate ahead of the release and equal to five times the average of the past twelve months. But the reported number is not one number; it is a mixture of components with entirely different durability. We separated it as a mixture is separated in a distillation column: removing government, then sectors that hire regardless of what the economy does, left 39.4 thousand jobs at the bottom — all that cyclical private-sector employment added. We then calibrated the result against an entirely independent measure that does not read the data but pays for it: the Treasury yield curve. The two measures agreed.
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